SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 5 games · updated Jul 23, 9:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/23 1:10 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | +12.1 | 131 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/23 5:15 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 53¢ | +4.7 | 131 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/23 12:15 PM | 130 | 69¢ | 31¢ / 70¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/23 1:10 PM | 131 | 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/23 3:07 PM | 132 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/23 5:15 PM | 131 | 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 07/23 6:40 PM | 130 | 65¢ | 35¢ / 66¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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