SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 18 games · updated Jul 17, 12:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/17 1:35 PM | 135 | 53¢ | – / – | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/17 7:05 PM | 134 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/17 7:10 PM | 136 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/17 7:15 PM | 135 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 43¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/17 7:15 PM | 131 | 65¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/17 7:40 PM | 132 | 57¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/17 8:05 PM | 131 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/17 8:10 PM | 135 | 49¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/17 8:10 PM | 129 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/17 8:40 PM | 129 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/17 9:38 PM | 130 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/17 9:40 PM | 131 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/17 9:40 PM | 107 | 49¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 51¢ / 52¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/17 10:10 PM | 130 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm | 07/17 7:30 PM | 142 | 76¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 79¢ / 22¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/17 7:30 PM | 141 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream | 07/17 7:30 PM | 141 | 27¢ | 27¢ / 74¢ | 27¢ / 74¢ | 27¢ / 75¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun | 07/17 10:00 PM | 141 | 65¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 65¢ / 35¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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