SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 26, 11:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/26 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +10.3 | 139 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 07/26 2:15 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +9.9 | 140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs | MLB | 07/26 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 54¢ | +8.1 | 140 |
| Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/26 1:40 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 54¢ | +7.9 | 142 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/26 12:15 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +6.3 | 141 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/26 12:15 PM | 141 | 53¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves | 07/26 1:35 PM | 142 | 50¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/26 1:35 PM | 139 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 07/26 1:35 PM | 140 | 54¢ | 46¢ / 56¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/26 1:35 PM | 141 | 49¢ | 53¢ / 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/26 1:40 PM | 141 | 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | 07/26 1:40 PM | 142 | 54¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 07/26 1:40 PM | 142 | 63¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 07/26 2:10 PM | 140 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | 07/26 2:10 PM | 140 | 58¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | 07/26 2:10 PM | 142 | 75¢ | 25¢ / 77¢ | 76¢ / 25¢ | 76¢ / 24¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/26 2:15 PM | 140 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/26 2:35 PM | 142 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels | 07/26 4:05 PM | 140 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees | 07/26 7:20 PM | 140 | 62¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 64¢ / 36¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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