SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 24, 4:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Minnesota TwinsAthleticsMLB07/24 8:10 PMKalshi43¢56¢+13.2137
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York YankeesMLB07/24 6:45 PMKalshi45¢56¢+10.6142
Los Angeles DodgersNew York MetsMLB07/24 7:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.3143
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/24 7:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.2143
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland GuardiansMLB07/24 7:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.2143
Chicago White SoxHouston AstrosMLB07/24 7:40 PMKalshi45¢54¢+9.5141
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/25 4:10 PMKalshi45¢54¢+9.046
Washington NationalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/25 4:05 PMKalshi46¢55¢+8.947
Baltimore OriolesAtlanta BravesMLB07/24 7:05 PMKalshi47¢54¢+6.8142
San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles AngelsMLB07/25 4:05 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.346
Arizona DiamondbacksWashington NationalsMLB07/24 6:45 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.3141
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/24 7:15 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.2142
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/25 4:10 PMKalshi47¢52¢+4.946

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/24 6:40 PM14070¢28¢ / 71¢71¢ / 30¢71¢ / 30¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/24 6:40 PM14050¢49¢ / 52¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 50¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees07/24 6:45 PM14256¢45¢ / 56¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 45¢
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/24 6:45 PM14147¢54¢ / 47¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/24 7:05 PM14254¢47¢ / 54¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/24 7:10 PM14355¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/24 7:10 PM14345¢56¢ / 45¢46¢ / 55¢45¢ / 56¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/24 7:10 PM14355¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/24 7:15 PM14253¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢55¢ / 46¢
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/24 7:40 PM14154¢45¢ / 56¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 46¢
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/24 8:05 PM14349¢52¢ / 49¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 51¢
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/24 8:10 PM13756¢43¢ / 58¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/24 8:15 PM14258¢41¢ / 59¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/24 10:15 PM14159¢41¢ / 60¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/25 1:10 PM4861¢40¢ / 62¢63¢ / 38¢ /
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/25 4:05 PM4755¢46¢ / 56¢55¢ / 46¢ /
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/25 4:05 PM4653¢47¢ / 55¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/25 4:10 PM4654¢45¢ / 55¢55¢ / 46¢ /
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/25 4:10 PM4652¢47¢ / 53¢53¢ / 48¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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