SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 27 games · updated Jul 25, 2:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/25 4:10 PMKalshi45¢56¢+11.2143
Washington NationalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/25 4:05 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.1142
San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles AngelsMLB07/25 4:05 PMKalshi46¢54¢+8.4141
New York YankeesPhiladelphia PhilliesMLB07/25 6:05 PMKalshi47¢54¢+6.8139
Chicago White SoxHouston AstrosMLB07/25 7:10 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.3141
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsMLB07/25 6:40 PMKalshi47¢53¢+5.6141
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland GuardiansMLB07/25 6:10 PMKalshi48¢53¢+4.8141

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/25 4:05 PM14255¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/25 4:05 PM14154¢46¢ / 54¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 46¢
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/25 4:10 PM14356¢45¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/25 4:10 PM14151¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees07/25 6:05 PM13946¢54¢ / 47¢46¢ / 55¢47¢ / 54¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/25 6:10 PM14153¢48¢ / 53¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 47¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/25 6:40 PM14153¢47¢ / 55¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/25 7:05 PM14051¢50¢ / 52¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 49¢
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/25 7:10 PM14058¢41¢ / 59¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/25 7:10 PM14153¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/25 7:10 PM14067¢32¢ / 69¢69¢ / 32¢69¢ / 32¢
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/25 7:15 PM14049¢52¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/25 7:15 PM14042¢60¢ / 41¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 59¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/25 7:15 PM13851¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/26 12:15 PM255¢45¢ / 57¢55¢ / 46¢– / –
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/26 1:35 PM151¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/26 1:35 PM156¢44¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢– / –
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/26 1:35 PM256¢46¢ / 55¢56¢ / 46¢– / –
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/26 1:35 PM247¢54¢ / 47¢49¢ / 52¢– / –
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/26 1:40 PM241¢59¢ / 42¢42¢ / 60¢– / –
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/26 1:40 PM251¢48¢ / 53¢54¢ / 48¢– / –
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/26 1:40 PM162¢39¢ / 63¢62¢ / 39¢– / –
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/26 2:10 PM152¢49¢ / 52¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/26 2:10 PM162¢40¢ / 62¢61¢ / 41¢– / –
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/26 2:10 PM275¢27¢ / 75¢74¢ / 27¢– / –
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/26 2:15 PM255¢46¢ / 54¢55¢ / 47¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Team Coop vs Team Spoon07/25 8:30 PM9939¢– / –39¢ / 62¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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