SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 16 games · updated Jul 25, 12:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/25 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 56¢ | +10.6 | 125 |
| Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/25 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +9.9 | 124 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/25 6:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +9.7 | 124 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs | MLB | 07/25 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 55¢ | +8.7 | 125 |
| San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Angels | MLB | 07/25 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 54¢ | +7.8 | 122 |
| Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | MLB | 07/25 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +6.5 | 123 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 07/25 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +4.4 | 120 |
| New York Yankees | Philadelphia Phillies | MLB | 07/25 6:05 PM | Kalshi | 49¢ | 52¢ | +3.2 | 120 |
| Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/25 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 49¢ | 52¢ | +3.0 | 125 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 07/25 1:10 PM | 123 | 62¢ | 39¢ / 63¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/25 4:05 PM | 125 | 56¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels | 07/25 4:05 PM | 122 | 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ |
| Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | 07/25 4:10 PM | 124 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/25 4:10 PM | 125 | 52¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 49¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees | 07/25 6:05 PM | 120 | 48¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/25 6:10 PM | 124 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 07/25 6:40 PM | 125 | 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves | 07/25 7:05 PM | 124 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | 07/25 7:10 PM | 122 | 59¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 07/25 7:10 PM | 123 | 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | 07/25 7:10 PM | 125 | 66¢ | 34¢ / 68¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | 68¢ / 33¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/25 7:15 PM | 121 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/25 7:15 PM | 120 | 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 61¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/25 7:15 PM | 120 | 52¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Team Coop vs Team Spoon | 07/25 8:30 PM | 96 | 41¢ | – / – | 43¢ / 58¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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