SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 24 games · updated Sep 5, 6:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)	Start (ET)	Books	Fair A	Kalshi A / B	Polymarket A / B	ProphetX A / B
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	09/05 6:40 PM	173	42¢	42¢ / 59¢	43¢ / 58¢	42¢ / 58¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	09/05 6:40 PM	166	62¢	64¢ / 37¢	64¢ / 37¢	63¢ / 37¢
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	09/05 7:05 PM	165	50¢	51¢ / 50¢	52¢ / 49¢	51¢ / 49¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	09/05 7:05 PM	166	46¢	46¢ / 55¢	47¢ / 54¢	46¢ / 54¢
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	09/05 7:10 PM	175	50¢	50¢ / 51¢	50¢ / 51¢	– / –
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	09/05 7:10 PM	164	53¢	54¢ / 48¢	54¢ / 47¢	53¢ / 47¢
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	09/05 7:15 PM	165	53¢	55¢ / 46¢	56¢ / 45¢	54¢ / 46¢
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	09/05 7:15 PM	174	50¢	50¢ / 51¢	50¢ / 51¢	49¢ / 51¢
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	09/05 8:10 PM	165	47¢	47¢ / 54¢	47¢ / 54¢	47¢ / 53¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	09/05 9:10 PM	163	65¢	66¢ / 35¢	65¢ / 36¢	65¢ / 35¢
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	09/05 9:40 PM	166	68¢	69¢ / 32¢	68¢ / 33¢	68¢ / 32¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	09/06 12:10 PM	90	41¢	42¢ / 59¢	43¢ / 58¢	– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	09/06 1:10 PM	92	50¢	51¢ / 50¢	50¢ / 51¢	– / –
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	09/06 1:35 PM	86	45¢	45¢ / 56¢	47¢ / 54¢	– / –
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	09/06 1:35 PM	93	63¢	64¢ / 37¢	65¢ / 36¢	– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	09/06 1:40 PM	91	60¢	59¢ / 42¢	59¢ / 42¢	– / –
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	09/06 1:40 PM	21	55¢	57¢ / 44¢	55¢ / 46¢	– / –
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	09/06 1:40 PM	88	43¢	44¢ / 57¢	44¢ / 57¢	– / –
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	09/06 2:10 PM	81	48¢	50¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	09/06 2:10 PM	91	50¢	52¢ / 50¢	52¢ / 49¢	– / –
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	09/06 2:35 PM	81	51¢	51¢ / 51¢	49¢ / 52¢	– / –
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	09/06 3:10 PM	90	45¢	46¢ / 55¢	47¢ / 54¢	– / –
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	09/06 4:10 PM	92	50¢	50¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	09/06 4:10 PM	90	64¢	66¢ / 36¢	65¢ / 36¢	– / –

Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.

What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.