SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 20, 7:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Seattle MarinersCincinnati RedsMLB07/20 9:40 PMKalshi43¢57¢+13.8142
New York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/21 7:05 PMKalshi44¢57¢+13.464
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota TwinsMLB07/21 6:40 PMKalshi44¢57¢+13.231
Atlanta BravesSan Diego PadresMLB07/21 7:15 PMKalshi44¢57¢+12.763
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/21 6:40 PMKalshi46¢55¢+9.352
Atlanta BravesSan Diego PadresMLB07/20 7:15 PMKalshi46¢55¢+8.9126
Washington NationalsColorado RockiesMLB07/20 8:40 PMKalshi46¢54¢+8.4142
Kansas City RoyalsSan Francisco GiantsMLB07/20 7:40 PMKalshi47¢53¢+5.9142
Houston AstrosMiami MarlinsMLB07/20 8:10 PMKalshi48¢53¢+5.1142

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/20 7:15 PM12655¢46¢ / 55¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 47¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets07/20 7:40 PM14166¢34¢ / 67¢67¢ / 34¢66¢ / 34¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants07/20 7:40 PM14253¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers07/20 8:05 PM14351¢50¢ / 52¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox07/20 8:05 PM14160¢40¢ / 62¢62¢ / 39¢61¢ / 40¢
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins07/20 8:10 PM14253¢48¢ / 54¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals07/20 8:40 PM14246¢55¢ / 46¢46¢ / 55¢46¢ / 55¢
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds07/20 9:40 PM14257¢43¢ / 58¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics07/20 9:40 PM14157¢58¢ / 46¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals07/20 10:10 PM14150¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins07/21 6:40 PM3157¢44¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/21 6:40 PM5255¢46¢ / 55¢54¢ / 47¢– / –
New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/21 7:05 PM6457¢44¢ / 58¢57¢ / 44¢– / –
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays07/21 7:07 PM6149¢52¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/21 7:15 PM6357¢44¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces07/20 8:00 PM14319¢84¢ / 17¢17¢ / 84¢18¢ / 83¢
Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty07/20 8:00 PM14536¢67¢ / 35¢36¢ / 65¢36¢ / 65¢
Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx07/20 10:00 PM14422¢81¢ / 20¢20¢ / 81¢21¢ / 81¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/20 10:00 PM14576¢24¢ / 77¢78¢ / 23¢77¢ / 24¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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