SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 20 games · updated Jul 27, 10:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/28 10:10 PM | Polymarket | 36¢ | 39¢ | +2.9 | 16 |
| Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/28 10:10 PM | Kalshi | 36¢ | 39¢ | +2.9 | 16 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/28 1:40 PM | 19 | 58¢ | – / – | 60¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/28 6:40 PM | 125 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/28 6:40 PM | 125 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/28 6:40 PM | 90 | 61¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/28 6:40 PM | 124 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ |
| Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/28 6:45 PM | 87 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/28 7:10 PM | 90 | 41¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 60¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/28 7:10 PM | 51 | 45¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/28 7:40 PM | 91 | 45¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/28 7:40 PM | 91 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | 07/28 9:38 PM | 79 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 07/28 9:40 PM | 79 | 62¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 64¢ / 38¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/28 9:40 PM | 78 | 42¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | – / – |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/28 9:45 PM | 80 | 44¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/28 10:10 PM | 16 | 61¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun | 07/28 7:30 PM | 143 | 67¢ | 69¢ / 33¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | 70¢ / 32¢ |
| Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo | 07/28 8:00 PM | 140 | 88¢ | 90¢ / 11¢ | 90¢ / 11¢ | 91¢ / 11¢ |
| Seattle Storm vs Indiana Fever | 07/28 9:30 PM | 142 | 22¢ | 20¢ / 80¢ | 22¢ / 79¢ | 22¢ / 80¢ |
| Los Angeles Sparks vs New York Liberty | 07/28 10:00 PM | 139 | 38¢ | 39¢ / 63¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 38¢ / 62¢ |
| Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire | 07/28 10:00 PM | 141 | 83¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ | 84¢ / 17¢ | 85¢ / 17¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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