SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 18, 2:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Milwaukee BrewersMiami MarlinsMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi40¢55¢+14.8129
Chicago CubsMinnesota TwinsMLB07/18 2:20 PMKalshi42¢56¢+14.4128
Detroit TigersLos Angeles AngelsMLB07/18 10:07 PMKalshi49¢63¢+13.9132
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York MetsMLB07/18 4:05 PMKalshi46¢60¢+13.7129
Atlanta BravesTexas RangersMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi38¢51¢+13.2127
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi39¢51¢+12.1135
Toronto Blue JaysChicago White SoxMLB07/18 3:07 PMKalshi37¢49¢+12.0128
Los Angeles AngelsDetroit TigersMLB07/18 10:07 PMKalshi26¢37¢+11.1132
San Francisco GiantsSeattle MarinersMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi34¢45¢+11.1126
Baltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢50¢+10.9136
AthleticsWashington NationalsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi44¢54¢+10.2133
Houston AstrosBaltimore OriolesMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi40¢50¢+10.1136
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi42¢52¢+10.1128
Chicago White SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/18 3:07 PMKalshi41¢51¢+10.1128
New York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi40¢49¢+8.9135
Texas RangersAtlanta BravesMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi40¢49¢+8.8127
San Diego PadresKansas City RoyalsMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi43¢51¢+8.5131
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi37¢45¢+8.2129
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi40¢48¢+7.9128
Minnesota TwinsChicago CubsMLB07/18 2:20 PMKalshi36¢44¢+7.6128
New York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesMLB07/18 4:05 PMKalshi33¢40¢+7.2129
Washington NationalsAthleticsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi39¢46¢+6.8133
Colorado RockiesCincinnati RedsMLB07/18 3:10 PMKalshi43¢49¢+6.2124
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi43¢48¢+4.8126
Cincinnati RedsColorado RockiesMLB07/18 3:10 PMKalshi47¢51¢+3.8124

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 1:10 PM11354¢56¢ / 45¢– / –55¢ / 45¢
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/18 2:20 PM12856¢42¢ / 36¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/18 3:07 PM12849¢37¢ / 41¢49¢ / 52¢48¢ / 52¢
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/18 3:10 PM12449¢43¢ / 47¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/18 4:05 PM12960¢46¢ / 33¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 40¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/18 4:10 PM13149¢49¢ / 43¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/18 4:10 PM12652¢54¢ / 43¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/18 4:10 PM12852¢42¢ / 40¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 49¢
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/18 4:10 PM12751¢38¢ / 40¢53¢ / 48¢51¢ / 49¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/18 4:10 PM12955¢40¢ / 37¢55¢ / 46¢56¢ / 45¢
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/18 4:10 PM13650¢40¢ / 39¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 7:10 PM10949¢71¢ / 71¢52¢ / 49¢50¢ / 53¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/18 8:08 PM13549¢40¢ / 39¢49¢ / 52¢50¢ / 52¢
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/18 8:08 PM12655¢39¢ / 34¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/18 10:05 PM13354¢44¢ / 39¢54¢ / 47¢55¢ / 47¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/18 10:07 PM13237¢26¢ / 49¢37¢ / 64¢37¢ / 64¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire07/18 8:00 PM14085¢86¢ / 15¢87¢ / 14¢86¢ / 16¢
Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty07/18 8:00 PM14146¢45¢ / 56¢46¢ / 55¢45¢ / 58¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/18 8:30 PM14177¢78¢ / 23¢78¢ / 23¢79¢ / 23¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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