SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 17, 10:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Milwaukee BrewersMiami MarlinsMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi41¢55¢+13.8115
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York MetsMLB07/18 4:05 PMKalshi46¢59¢+13.4116
Detroit TigersLos Angeles AngelsMLB07/18 10:07 PMKalshi50¢63¢+12.570
Atlanta BravesTexas RangersMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢51¢+12.1110
San Francisco GiantsSeattle MarinersMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi33¢45¢+11.8105
Toronto Blue JaysChicago White SoxMLB07/18 3:07 PMKalshi37¢49¢+11.780
Houston AstrosBaltimore OriolesMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢51¢+11.5114
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi39¢50¢+11.4107
AthleticsWashington NationalsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi43¢54¢+10.873
New York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi39¢50¢+10.6107
Baltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢49¢+10.5114
Chicago White SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/18 3:07 PMKalshi41¢51¢+10.380
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi42¢52¢+10.2114
Texas RangersAtlanta BravesMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢49¢+9.9110
Los Angeles AngelsDetroit TigersMLB07/18 10:07 PMKalshi28¢37¢+9.570
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi37¢45¢+8.2115
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi40¢48¢+7.8114
New York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesMLB07/18 4:05 PMKalshi33¢41¢+7.6116
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi41¢48¢+6.8114
Washington NationalsAthleticsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi40¢46¢+6.273

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 1:10 PM4154¢56¢ / 45¢– / –– / –
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/18 2:20 PM12157¢57¢ / 43¢57¢ / 44¢– / –
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/18 3:07 PM8049¢37¢ / 41¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/18 3:10 PM6548¢48¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/18 4:05 PM11659¢46¢ / 33¢60¢ / 41¢– / –
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/18 4:10 PM2949¢49¢ / 51¢51¢ / 51¢– / –
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/18 4:10 PM11452¢54¢ / 41¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/18 4:10 PM11452¢42¢ / 40¢52¢ / 49¢– / –
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/18 4:10 PM11051¢39¢ / 39¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/18 4:10 PM11555¢41¢ / 37¢56¢ / 45¢– / –
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/18 4:10 PM11451¢39¢ / 39¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 7:10 PM5849¢73¢ / 73¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/18 8:08 PM10750¢39¢ / 39¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/18 8:08 PM10555¢40¢ / 33¢57¢ / 44¢– / –
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/18 10:05 PM7354¢43¢ / 40¢54¢ / 47¢– / –
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/18 10:07 PM7037¢28¢ / 50¢38¢ / 63¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire07/18 8:00 PM13485¢86¢ / 16¢87¢ / 14¢– / –
Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty07/18 8:00 PM12046¢46¢ / 54¢46¢ / 55¢– / –
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/18 8:30 PM13577¢77¢ / 23¢78¢ / 23¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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