SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 17 games · updated Jul 22, 6:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/22 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 56¢ | +11.4 | 145 |
| Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/23 1:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 54¢ | +9.2 | 60 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/23 5:15 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +7.1 | 58 |
| Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/22 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +6.9 | 137 |
| Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | MLB | 07/22 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +6.3 | 145 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | MLB | 07/22 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +6.3 | 144 |
| Chicago White Sox | Texas Rangers | MLB | 07/22 8:05 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 53¢ | +5.1 | 145 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/23 3:07 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +3.9 | 64 |
| Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/22 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 49¢ | 52¢ | +2.6 | 143 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/22 6:40 PM | 145 | 56¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/22 6:40 PM | 144 | 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/22 7:05 PM | 135 | 62¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/22 7:07 PM | 111 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/22 7:10 PM | 137 | 54¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/22 7:15 PM | 143 | 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 07/22 8:05 PM | 145 | 47¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 07/22 8:10 PM | 145 | 51¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 07/22 8:10 PM | 145 | 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/23 12:15 PM | 66 | 66¢ | 34¢ / 68¢ | 68¢ / 34¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/23 1:10 PM | 60 | 54¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/23 3:07 PM | 64 | 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | – / – |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/23 5:15 PM | 58 | 54¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky | 07/22 7:00 PM | 144 | 73¢ | 26¢ / 75¢ | 75¢ / 26¢ | 76¢ / 26¢ |
| Washington Mystics vs Las Vegas Aces | 07/22 7:30 PM | 144 | 33¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ | 31¢ / 70¢ | 32¢ / 68¢ |
| Indiana Fever vs Connecticut Sun | 07/22 8:00 PM | 144 | 80¢ | 19¢ / 82¢ | 82¢ / 19¢ | 82¢ / 19¢ |
| Portland Fire vs Dallas Wings | 07/22 10:00 PM | 146 | 33¢ | 70¢ / 32¢ | 31¢ / 70¢ | 31¢ / 71¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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