SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 19, 2:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 54¢ | +14.3 | 129 |
| Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 52¢ | +12.5 | 132 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | St. Louis Cardinals | MLB | 07/19 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 52¢ | +12.0 | 133 |
| Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 48¢ | +7.5 | 132 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/19 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 48¢ | +7.0 | 133 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | MLB | 07/19 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 47¢ | +6.8 | 133 |
| Cleveland Guardians | Pittsburgh Pirates | MLB | 07/19 1:40 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 46¢ | +6.4 | 132 |
| Miami Marlins | Milwaukee Brewers | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 46¢ | +5.7 | 129 |
| Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | MLB | 07/19 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +4.1 | 130 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | MLB | 07/19 7:20 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +4.0 | 10 |
| New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/19 7:20 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 48¢ | +3.0 | 10 |
| Los Angeles Sparks | Dallas Wings | WNBA | 07/19 1:00 PM | ProphetX | 19¢ | 22¢ | +3.0 | 139 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/19 12:15 PM | 134 | 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/19 12:35 PM | 114 | 49¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | – / – | 49¢ / 54¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/19 1:35 PM | 133 | 53¢ | 38¢ / 40¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 07/19 1:35 PM | 131 | 46¢ | 45¢ / 34¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/19 1:35 PM | 130 | 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/19 1:40 PM | 132 | 46¢ | 40¢ / 34¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/19 2:10 PM | 132 | 52¢ | 39¢ / 41¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/19 2:10 PM | 129 | 54¢ | 40¢ / 40¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/19 2:10 PM | 134 | 54¢ | 36¢ / 48¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/19 2:20 PM | 132 | 59¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/19 3:10 PM | 134 | 44¢ | 47¢ / 35¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/19 4:05 PM | 131 | 44¢ | 48¢ / 37¢ | 44¢ / 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/19 4:07 PM | 134 | 42¢ | 46¢ / 36¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/19 4:10 PM | 134 | 61¢ | 31¢ / 46¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/19 4:10 PM | 133 | 52¢ | 40¢ / 41¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/19 7:20 PM | 10 | 48¢ | 45¢ / 48¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 52¢ / 53¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/19 1:00 PM | 139 | 78¢ | 21¢ / 80¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ | 81¢ / 19¢ |
| Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky | 07/19 4:00 PM | 140 | 80¢ | 19¢ / 82¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun | 07/19 7:00 PM | 129 | 60¢ | 40¢ / 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 62¢ / 40¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
© SharpDelta · sharpdelta.com