SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 19, 6:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Milwaukee BrewersMiami MarlinsMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi40¢54¢+14.3137
Houston AstrosBaltimore OriolesMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi38¢52¢+13.9138
Arizona DiamondbacksSt. Louis CardinalsMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi40¢52¢+12.2138
Baltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi39¢48¢+9.1138
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi41¢48¢+6.8138
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi40¢47¢+6.8140
Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/19 1:40 PMKalshi40¢46¢+6.2138
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi40¢46¢+5.7137
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.234
Texas RangersAtlanta BravesMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.0136
New York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi45¢48¢+2.834

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/19 12:15 PM13949¢51¢ / 49¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 12:35 PM12448¢51¢ / 51¢– / –49¢ / 54¢
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/19 1:35 PM14053¢38¢ / 40¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/19 1:35 PM13946¢45¢ / 35¢45¢ / 56¢46¢ / 55¢
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/19 1:35 PM13648¢52¢ / 48¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/19 1:40 PM13846¢40¢ / 33¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/19 2:10 PM13852¢38¢ / 39¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/19 2:10 PM13754¢40¢ / 40¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/19 2:10 PM13854¢37¢ / 48¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/19 2:20 PM13560¢40¢ / 61¢62¢ / 39¢61¢ / 40¢
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/19 3:10 PM13844¢48¢ / 36¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/19 4:05 PM13844¢48¢ / 36¢44¢ / 56¢44¢ / 57¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/19 4:07 PM13842¢47¢ / 35¢42¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/19 4:10 PM13861¢32¢ / 45¢63¢ / 38¢63¢ / 38¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/19 4:10 PM13852¢40¢ / 41¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 7:20 PM3448¢45¢ / 48¢48¢ / 53¢49¢ / 53¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks07/19 1:00 PM14179¢21¢ / 80¢80¢ / 21¢81¢ / 21¢
Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky07/19 4:00 PM14180¢20¢ / 81¢80¢ / 21¢81¢ / 20¢
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun07/19 7:00 PM14260¢40¢ / 60¢61¢ / 40¢62¢ / 39¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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