SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 24, 8:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Minnesota TwinsAthleticsMLB07/24 8:10 PMKalshi44¢56¢+12.1138
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland GuardiansMLB07/24 7:10 PMKalshi45¢56¢+10.8135
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/24 7:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.2133
Chicago White SoxHouston AstrosMLB07/24 7:40 PMKalshi45¢55¢+9.5138
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York YankeesMLB07/24 6:45 PMKalshi46¢55¢+9.3139
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/24 7:15 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.3140
Arizona DiamondbacksWashington NationalsMLB07/24 6:45 PMKalshi47¢53¢+5.6138
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsMLB07/24 6:40 PMKalshi49¢53¢+3.6139
Seattle MarinersTexas RangersMLB07/24 8:05 PMKalshi49¢52¢+3.2137

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/24 4:10 PM14168¢31¢ / 70¢70¢ / 31¢70¢ / 31¢
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/24 6:40 PM13572¢28¢ / 74¢73¢ / 28¢73¢ / 28¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/24 6:40 PM13953¢49¢ / 52¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees07/24 6:45 PM13955¢46¢ / 56¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/24 6:45 PM13847¢54¢ / 47¢48¢ / 53¢47¢ / 54¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/24 7:05 PM13951¢49¢ / 52¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/24 7:10 PM13355¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/24 7:10 PM13842¢59¢ / 42¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/24 7:10 PM13556¢45¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/24 7:15 PM14053¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/24 7:40 PM13855¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/24 8:05 PM13748¢53¢ / 49¢49¢ / 52¢48¢ / 53¢
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/24 8:10 PM13856¢44¢ / 58¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/24 8:15 PM13659¢41¢ / 61¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 40¢
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/24 10:15 PM14060¢39¢ / 62¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 40¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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