SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 24, 12:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Minnesota Twins | Athletics | MLB | 07/24 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | +12.2 | 127 |
| Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | MLB | 07/24 7:40 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 55¢ | +11.3 | 131 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/24 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 56¢ | +10.6 | 133 |
| Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/24 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +10.0 | 112 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees | MLB | 07/24 6:45 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 55¢ | +8.5 | 130 |
| Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/24 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +6.0 | 120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs | MLB | 07/24 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 53¢ | +4.9 | 130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | MLB | 07/24 6:45 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +4.5 | 117 |
| Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | MLB | 07/24 8:05 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +4.2 | 128 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | 07/24 4:10 PM | 131 | 68¢ | 31¢ / 70¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 07/24 6:40 PM | 109 | 70¢ | 29¢ / 73¢ | 72¢ / 29¢ | 73¢ / 29¢ |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 07/24 6:40 PM | 130 | 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees | 07/24 6:45 PM | 130 | 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/24 6:45 PM | 117 | 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves | 07/24 7:05 PM | 118 | 52¢ | 50¢ / 53¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | 07/24 7:10 PM | 112 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 46¢ |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/24 7:10 PM | 131 | 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/24 7:10 PM | 133 | 56¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/24 7:15 PM | 120 | 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 07/24 7:40 PM | 131 | 55¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/24 8:05 PM | 128 | 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | 07/24 8:10 PM | 127 | 56¢ | 44¢ / 58¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/24 8:15 PM | 128 | 59¢ | 41¢ / 61¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels | 07/24 10:15 PM | 128 | 61¢ | 40¢ / 62¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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