SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 20 games · updated Jul 27, 10:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/28 10:10 PMPolymarket36¢39¢+2.916
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/28 10:10 PMKalshi36¢39¢+2.916

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians07/28 1:40 PM1958¢ / 60¢ / 41¢ /
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles07/28 6:40 PM12556¢57¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 45¢
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies07/28 6:40 PM12551¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers07/28 6:40 PM9061¢60¢ / 40¢62¢ / 39¢ /
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/28 6:40 PM12451¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 50¢
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays07/28 6:45 PM8756¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves07/28 7:10 PM9041¢41¢ / 60¢42¢ / 59¢42¢ / 60¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians07/28 7:10 PM5145¢48¢ / 53¢47¢ / 54¢ /
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees07/28 7:40 PM9145¢45¢ / 56¢45¢ / 56¢46¢ / 55¢
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals07/28 7:40 PM9158¢59¢ / 42¢58¢ / 43¢60¢ / 40¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros07/28 9:38 PM7950¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢ /
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies07/28 9:40 PM7962¢63¢ / 38¢63¢ / 38¢64¢ / 38¢
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox07/28 9:40 PM7842¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 59¢ /
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers07/28 9:45 PM8044¢44¢ / 57¢44¢ / 57¢ /
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners07/28 10:10 PM1661¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun07/28 7:30 PM14367¢69¢ / 33¢69¢ / 32¢70¢ / 32¢
Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo07/28 8:00 PM14088¢90¢ / 11¢90¢ / 11¢91¢ / 11¢
Seattle Storm vs Indiana Fever07/28 9:30 PM14222¢20¢ / 80¢22¢ / 79¢22¢ / 80¢
Los Angeles Sparks vs New York Liberty07/28 10:00 PM13938¢39¢ / 63¢39¢ / 62¢38¢ / 62¢
Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire07/28 10:00 PM14183¢85¢ / 16¢84¢ / 17¢85¢ / 17¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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