SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 16 games · updated Sep 5, 8:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals09/05 9:10 PM17563¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢63¢ / 37¢
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics09/05 9:40 PM17667¢69¢ / 32¢69¢ / 32¢69¢ / 32¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers09/06 12:10 PM11741¢41¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢ /
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves09/06 1:10 PM11750¢50¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢ /
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox09/06 1:35 PM11245¢45¢ / 56¢46¢ / 55¢ /
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels09/06 1:35 PM11763¢64¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢ /
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers09/06 1:40 PM11760¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢ /
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants09/06 1:40 PM9857¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 44¢ /
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs09/06 1:40 PM10643¢44¢ / 58¢44¢ / 57¢ /
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays09/06 2:10 PM8248¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢ /
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks09/06 2:10 PM10750¢51¢ / 50¢52¢ / 49¢ /
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays09/06 2:35 PM9450¢50¢ / 51¢49¢ / 52¢ /
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals09/06 3:10 PM11646¢46¢ / 55¢47¢ / 54¢ /
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees09/06 4:10 PM10850¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢ /
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics09/06 4:10 PM11663¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢ /
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins09/06 6:20 PM10757¢58¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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