SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 18, 10:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Milwaukee BrewersMiami MarlinsMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi40¢54¢+14.376
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi39¢53¢+14.384
Houston AstrosBaltimore OriolesMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi38¢52¢+13.583
Arizona DiamondbacksSt. Louis CardinalsMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi40¢52¢+12.277
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi40¢48¢+7.877
Baltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi42¢48¢+6.583
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi40¢46¢+5.776
Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/19 1:40 PMKalshi41¢46¢+5.182
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi42¢47¢+4.784
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.031
Texas RangersAtlanta BravesMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi49¢52¢+3.442
New York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi45¢48¢+3.031

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/19 12:15 PM8349¢52¢ / 49¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 12:35 PM1850¢49¢ / 52¢– / –– / –
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/19 1:35 PM8453¢39¢ / 42¢54¢ / 47¢– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/19 1:35 PM8346¢45¢ / 35¢46¢ / 55¢– / –
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/19 1:35 PM4248¢52¢ / 49¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/19 1:40 PM8246¢41¢ / 34¢47¢ / 54¢– / –
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/19 2:10 PM8352¢38¢ / 42¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/19 2:10 PM7654¢40¢ / 40¢56¢ / 45¢– / –
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/19 2:10 PM8354¢35¢ / 48¢55¢ / 46¢– / –
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/19 2:20 PM7860¢41¢ / 61¢60¢ / 41¢– / –
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/19 3:10 PM7644¢48¢ / 34¢45¢ / 56¢– / –
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/19 4:05 PM7444¢48¢ / 37¢44¢ / 56¢– / –
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/19 4:07 PM7442¢46¢ / 36¢42¢ / 59¢– / –
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/19 4:10 PM7661¢31¢ / 46¢62¢ / 39¢– / –
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/19 4:10 PM7752¢40¢ / 40¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 7:20 PM3148¢45¢ / 48¢48¢ / 53¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks07/19 1:00 PM13778¢21¢ / 80¢81¢ / 20¢– / –
Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky07/19 4:00 PM13980¢20¢ / 82¢82¢ / 19¢– / –
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun07/19 7:00 PM11262¢40¢ / 61¢62¢ / 39¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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