SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 3 games · updated Jul 23, 5:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/23 5:15 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 53¢ | +4.9 | 124 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/23 5:15 PM | 124 | 53¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 07/23 6:40 PM | 135 | 67¢ | 32¢ / 69¢ | 68¢ / 33¢ | 68¢ / 33¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | 07/24 4:10 PM | 63 | 66¢ | 32¢ / 69¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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