SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 3 games · updated Jul 15, 1:15 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Chicago Sky vs Seattle Storm07/15 12:00 PM13255¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks07/15 1:00 PM13185¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 15¢
Indiana Fever vs Golden State Valkyries07/15 8:00 PM13558¢56¢ / 45¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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