SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 26, 9:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Minnesota TwinsAthleticsMLB07/26 2:10 PMKalshi44¢57¢+13.0137
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi45¢56¢+10.6139
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland GuardiansMLB07/26 12:15 PMKalshi45¢55¢+9.5138
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati RedsMLB07/26 2:15 PMKalshi46¢55¢+8.8138
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi46¢54¢+8.0140
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/26 1:40 PMKalshi47¢54¢+7.2139
Arizona DiamondbacksWashington NationalsMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.0140

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/26 12:15 PM13855¢45¢ / 55¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/26 1:35 PM14050¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/26 1:35 PM13956¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/26 1:35 PM14054¢46¢ / 55¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/26 1:35 PM14048¢53¢ / 48¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/26 1:40 PM13841¢60¢ / 41¢41¢ / 60¢40¢ / 60¢
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/26 1:40 PM13954¢47¢ / 55¢54¢ / 47¢55¢ / 46¢
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/26 1:40 PM14163¢37¢ / 64¢64¢ / 37¢63¢ / 38¢
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/26 2:10 PM13950¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 51¢
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/26 2:10 PM13757¢44¢ / 58¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/26 2:10 PM13975¢24¢ / 77¢76¢ / 25¢76¢ / 25¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/26 2:15 PM13855¢46¢ / 55¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/26 2:35 PM13950¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/26 4:05 PM13851¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees07/26 7:20 PM13962¢37¢ / 64¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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