SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 28 games · updated Jul 17, 4:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/17 7:05 PM14149¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 51¢
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/17 7:10 PM13451¢– / –51¢ / 50¢52¢ / 48¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/17 7:10 PM14153¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/17 7:15 PM14255¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/17 7:15 PM14165¢67¢ / 35¢66¢ / 35¢66¢ / 34¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/17 7:40 PM14258¢59¢ / 43¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/17 8:05 PM14056¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 44¢58¢ / 42¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/17 8:10 PM14148¢48¢ / 54¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/17 8:10 PM14151¢53¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/17 8:40 PM14051¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/17 9:38 PM14049¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/17 9:40 PM14145¢46¢ / 55¢46¢ / 55¢45¢ / 55¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/17 9:40 PM14050¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 50¢
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/17 10:10 PM14163¢64¢ / 38¢64¢ / 37¢63¢ / 38¢
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/18 2:20 PM6057¢57¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢– / –
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/18 3:07 PM5749¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/18 3:10 PM151¢46¢ / 54¢48¢ / 53¢– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/18 4:05 PM5659¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 41¢– / –
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/18 4:10 PM5452¢54¢ / 46¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/18 4:10 PM3952¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 49¢– / –
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/18 4:10 PM5052¢53¢ / 47¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/18 4:10 PM5555¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 44¢– / –
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/18 4:10 PM5051¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 49¢– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 4:10 PM5048¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm07/17 7:30 PM14777¢79¢ / 21¢80¢ / 21¢79¢ / 22¢
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks07/17 7:30 PM14752¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream07/17 7:30 PM14624¢23¢ / 78¢23¢ / 78¢23¢ / 79¢
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun07/17 10:00 PM14562¢64¢ / 37¢63¢ / 38¢63¢ / 37¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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