SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Jul 27, 7:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/27 7:40 PM | 144 | 44¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/27 7:45 PM | 143 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/27 9:40 PM | 144 | 37¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ | 37¢ / 63¢ |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/27 9:45 PM | 142 | 44¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/28 6:40 PM | 76 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/28 6:40 PM | 109 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/28 6:40 PM | 1 | 59¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/28 6:40 PM | 75 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/28 6:45 PM | 75 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/28 7:10 PM | 72 | 42¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | – / – |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/28 7:10 PM | 73 | 45¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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