SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 26 games · updated Jul 18, 4:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland GuardiansMLB07/19 1:40 PMKalshi42¢54¢+11.952
Washington NationalsAthleticsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi40¢51¢+11.1141
New York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi44¢54¢+10.160
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi40¢47¢+7.460
Milwaukee BrewersMiami MarlinsMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi47¢54¢+7.151
AthleticsWashington NationalsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi42¢49¢+6.9141
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi43¢46¢+3.051

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/18 4:10 PM9951¢52¢ / 50¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/18 4:10 PM9543¢42¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢43¢ / 60¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 7:10 PM11550¢51¢ / 50¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 50¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/18 8:08 PM13951¢51¢ / 50¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 50¢
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/18 8:08 PM14058¢59¢ / 42¢60¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/18 10:05 PM14149¢42¢ / 40¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/18 10:07 PM14036¢36¢ / 65¢36¢ / 65¢36¢ / 65¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/19 12:15 PM5949¢49¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢ /
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/19 1:35 PM6053¢51¢ / 40¢52¢ / 49¢ /
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/19 1:35 PM6046¢45¢ / 44¢48¢ / 53¢ /
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/19 1:35 PM150¢54¢ / 48¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/19 1:40 PM5246¢49¢ / 42¢48¢ / 54¢ /
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/19 2:10 PM5152¢74¢ / 74¢52¢ / 49¢ /
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/19 2:10 PM5154¢47¢ / 43¢56¢ / 45¢ /
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/19 2:10 PM5054¢74¢ / 74¢53¢ / 48¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/19 2:20 PM5160¢59¢ / 41¢60¢ / 42¢ /
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/19 3:10 PM5244¢72¢ / 73¢46¢ / 55¢ /
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/19 4:05 PM5045¢74¢ / 74¢47¢ / 53¢ /
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/19 4:07 PM5042¢73¢ / 74¢42¢ / 59¢ /
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/19 4:10 PM5060¢74¢ / 74¢62¢ / 39¢ /
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/19 4:10 PM5052¢74¢ / 74¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire07/18 8:00 PM14185¢87¢ / 14¢87¢ / 14¢88¢ / 14¢
Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty07/18 8:00 PM14445¢46¢ / 55¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 55¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/18 8:30 PM14276¢78¢ / 23¢78¢ / 23¢78¢ / 24¢
Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks07/19 1:00 PM11977¢80¢ / 21¢80¢ / 21¢ /
Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky07/19 4:00 PM11779¢81¢ / 20¢81¢ / 20¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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