SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 24, 3:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Minnesota TwinsAthleticsMLB07/24 8:10 PMKalshi44¢56¢+12.4133
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland GuardiansMLB07/24 7:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.3137
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/24 7:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.2128
Chicago White SoxHouston AstrosMLB07/24 7:40 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.0134
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York YankeesMLB07/24 6:45 PMKalshi46¢54¢+8.4137
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/24 7:15 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.1135
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsMLB07/24 6:40 PMKalshi48¢53¢+5.1134
Arizona DiamondbacksWashington NationalsMLB07/24 6:45 PMKalshi48¢53¢+4.6135
Seattle MarinersTexas RangersMLB07/24 8:05 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.2132
Baltimore OriolesAtlanta BravesMLB07/24 7:05 PMKalshi49¢52¢+3.0136

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/24 4:10 PM13768¢31¢ / 70¢69¢ / 32¢70¢ / 31¢
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/24 6:40 PM13471¢28¢ / 73¢73¢ / 28¢73¢ / 29¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/24 6:40 PM13453¢48¢ / 53¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees07/24 6:45 PM13754¢46¢ / 55¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/24 6:45 PM13547¢53¢ / 48¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/24 7:05 PM13652¢49¢ / 53¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/24 7:10 PM12855¢45¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 44¢
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/24 7:10 PM13642¢59¢ / 42¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/24 7:10 PM13755¢45¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/24 7:15 PM13553¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/24 7:40 PM13455¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 43¢
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/24 8:05 PM13248¢53¢ / 48¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/24 8:10 PM13356¢44¢ / 58¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/24 8:15 PM13559¢41¢ / 60¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 41¢
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/24 10:15 PM13661¢40¢ / 62¢62¢ / 39¢61¢ / 39¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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