SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 3 games · updated Jul 23, 2:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/23 3:07 PM | 133 | 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/23 5:15 PM | 133 | 52¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 07/23 6:40 PM | 132 | 67¢ | 33¢ / 68¢ | 68¢ / 33¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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