SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 6 games · updated Jul 22, 9:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/23 1:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 54¢ | +9.4 | 112 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/23 5:15 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +7.3 | 118 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/23 12:15 PM | 121 | 66¢ | 34¢ / 68¢ | 68¢ / 33¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/23 1:10 PM | 112 | 54¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/23 3:07 PM | 120 | 50¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | – / – |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/23 5:15 PM | 118 | 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 07/23 6:40 PM | 114 | 64¢ | 36¢ / 64¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Portland Fire vs Dallas Wings | 07/22 10:00 PM | 147 | 30¢ | 71¢ / 30¢ | 30¢ / 71¢ | 29¢ / 73¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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