SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 24 games · updated Jul 17, 7:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Chicago Cubs | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/17 8:05 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 57¢ | +13.3 | 141 |
| Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Angels | MLB | 07/17 9:38 PM | Kalshi | 37¢ | 50¢ | +13.3 | 141 |
| Atlanta Braves | Texas Rangers | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 38¢ | 51¢ | +13.2 | 72 |
| Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/17 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 52¢ | +13.0 | 141 |
| Washington Nationals | Athletics | MLB | 07/17 9:40 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 55¢ | +12.9 | 141 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | MLB | 07/18 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 60¢ | +12.6 | 80 |
| Los Angeles Angels | Detroit Tigers | MLB | 07/17 9:38 PM | Kalshi | 38¢ | 50¢ | +11.7 | 141 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Chicago White Sox | MLB | 07/18 3:07 PM | Kalshi | 38¢ | 49¢ | +10.7 | 78 |
| Chicago White Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/18 3:07 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 51¢ | +10.3 | 78 |
| Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros | MLB | 07/17 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 48¢ | +9.0 | 141 |
| San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners | MLB | 07/17 10:10 PM | Kalshi | 29¢ | 38¢ | +9.0 | 141 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/17 9:40 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 49¢ | +8.9 | 141 |
| Miami Marlins | Milwaukee Brewers | MLB | 07/17 7:40 PM | Kalshi | 34¢ | 42¢ | +8.2 | 142 |
| Colorado Rockies | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 07/17 8:40 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 51¢ | +8.1 | 141 |
| Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | MLB | 07/17 8:40 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 49¢ | +8.0 | 141 |
| New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | MLB | 07/18 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 33¢ | 40¢ | +7.4 | 80 |
| Athletics | Washington Nationals | MLB | 07/17 9:40 PM | Kalshi | 38¢ | 45¢ | +7.1 | 141 |
| Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 49¢ | +4.9 | 72 |
| Minnesota Twins | Chicago Cubs | MLB | 07/17 8:05 PM | Kalshi | 38¢ | 43¢ | +4.7 | 141 |
| Seattle Storm | Indiana Fever | WNBA | 07/17 7:30 PM | Kalshi | 21¢ | 24¢ | +3.2 | 141 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/17 7:40 PM | 142 | 58¢ | 42¢ / 34¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/17 8:05 PM | 141 | 57¢ | 44¢ / 38¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/17 8:10 PM | 141 | 47¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/17 8:10 PM | 141 | 52¢ | 39¢ / 39¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/17 8:40 PM | 141 | 51¢ | 43¢ / 41¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/17 9:38 PM | 141 | 50¢ | 38¢ / 37¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/17 9:40 PM | 141 | 45¢ | 38¢ / 42¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/17 9:40 PM | 141 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 40¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/17 10:10 PM | 141 | 62¢ | 43¢ / 29¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 1:10 PM | 18 | 53¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/18 2:20 PM | 85 | 57¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/18 3:07 PM | 78 | 49¢ | 38¢ / 41¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/18 3:10 PM | 1 | 51¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | – / – |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 07/18 4:05 PM | 80 | 60¢ | 47¢ / 33¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/18 4:10 PM | 77 | 52¢ | 54¢ / 73¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/18 4:10 PM | 77 | 52¢ | 73¢ / 73¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/18 4:10 PM | 72 | 51¢ | 38¢ / 44¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/18 4:10 PM | 77 | 55¢ | 73¢ / 73¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/18 4:10 PM | 72 | 50¢ | 71¢ / 71¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 7:10 PM | 37 | 48¢ | 73¢ / 73¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm | 07/17 7:30 PM | 141 | 76¢ | 80¢ / 21¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/17 7:30 PM | 141 | 55¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ |
| Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream | 07/17 7:30 PM | 140 | 22¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ | 21¢ / 80¢ | 22¢ / 80¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun | 07/17 10:00 PM | 144 | 61¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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