SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 20, 7:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 07/20 9:40 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 57¢ | +13.8 | 142 |
| New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | MLB | 07/21 7:05 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 57¢ | +13.4 | 64 |
| Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/21 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 57¢ | +13.2 | 31 |
| Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/21 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 57¢ | +12.7 | 63 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/21 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 55¢ | +9.3 | 52 |
| Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/20 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 55¢ | +8.9 | 126 |
| Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | MLB | 07/20 8:40 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 54¢ | +8.4 | 142 |
| Kansas City Royals | San Francisco Giants | MLB | 07/20 7:40 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +5.9 | 142 |
| Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/20 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 53¢ | +5.1 | 142 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/20 7:15 PM | 126 | 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 07/20 7:40 PM | 141 | 66¢ | 34¢ / 67¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 07/20 7:40 PM | 142 | 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 07/20 8:05 PM | 143 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 07/20 8:05 PM | 141 | 60¢ | 40¢ / 62¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 07/20 8:10 PM | 142 | 53¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 07/20 8:40 PM | 142 | 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/20 9:40 PM | 142 | 57¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | 07/20 9:40 PM | 141 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 46¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/20 10:10 PM | 141 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/21 6:40 PM | 31 | 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/21 6:40 PM | 52 | 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/21 7:05 PM | 64 | 57¢ | 44¢ / 58¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/21 7:07 PM | 61 | 49¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/21 7:15 PM | 63 | 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces | 07/20 8:00 PM | 143 | 19¢ | 84¢ / 17¢ | 17¢ / 84¢ | 18¢ / 83¢ |
| Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty | 07/20 8:00 PM | 145 | 36¢ | 67¢ / 35¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ |
| Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx | 07/20 10:00 PM | 144 | 22¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ | 20¢ / 81¢ | 21¢ / 81¢ |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics | 07/20 10:00 PM | 145 | 76¢ | 24¢ / 77¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
© SharpDelta · sharpdelta.com