SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 4 games · updated Jul 14, 4:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| National League All Stars vs American League All Stars | 07/14 8:00 PM | 121 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Tempo vs Washington Mystics | 07/14 7:00 PM | 141 | 47¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Seattle Storm | 07/15 12:00 PM | 121 | 59¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 62¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/15 1:00 PM | 119 | 85¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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