SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 21, 4:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/21 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 58¢ | +14.7 | 132 |
| New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | MLB | 07/21 7:05 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 57¢ | +14.4 | 135 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | MLB | 07/21 7:40 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 57¢ | +12.7 | 135 |
| Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/21 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 57¢ | +12.6 | 136 |
| Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/21 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | +11.7 | 130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Athletics | MLB | 07/21 9:40 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +9.8 | 74 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/21 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 55¢ | +9.1 | 137 |
| Texas Rangers | Chicago White Sox | MLB | 07/21 8:05 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +7.1 | 128 |
| Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/21 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +6.5 | 136 |
| Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | MLB | 07/21 8:05 PM | Kalshi | 49¢ | 52¢ | +3.0 | 134 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/21 6:40 PM | 132 | 58¢ | 43¢ / 59¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/21 6:40 PM | 137 | 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/21 7:05 PM | 135 | 57¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/21 7:07 PM | 135 | 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/21 7:10 PM | 130 | 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/21 7:15 PM | 136 | 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 07/21 7:40 PM | 135 | 57¢ | 44¢ / 58¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 07/21 7:40 PM | 136 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 07/21 8:05 PM | 134 | 52¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 07/21 8:05 PM | 128 | 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 48¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 07/21 8:10 PM | 136 | 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 48¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 07/21 8:40 PM | 135 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/21 9:38 PM | 135 | 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | 07/21 9:40 PM | 74 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/21 9:40 PM | 134 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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