SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 23 games · updated Jul 18, 8:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi39¢53¢+14.382
Milwaukee BrewersMiami MarlinsMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi41¢54¢+13.374
Kansas City RoyalsSan Diego PadresMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi41¢54¢+13.080
Houston AstrosBaltimore OriolesMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi39¢52¢+12.782
Arizona DiamondbacksSt. Louis CardinalsMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi42¢52¢+10.274
Washington NationalsAthleticsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi40¢50¢+10.0142
Baltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi40¢48¢+8.382
AthleticsWashington NationalsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi42¢50¢+8.0142
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi40¢48¢+7.874
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi39¢46¢+6.774
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi41¢47¢+5.782
Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/19 1:40 PMKalshi42¢46¢+4.178

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 7:10 PM10350¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 51¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/18 10:05 PM14250¢42¢ / 40¢49¢ / 52¢50¢ / 51¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/18 10:07 PM14236¢66¢ / 35¢36¢ / 65¢35¢ / 66¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/19 12:15 PM8149¢52¢ / 49¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 12:35 PM1251¢49¢ / 52¢– / –– / –
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/19 1:35 PM8253¢39¢ / 41¢54¢ / 47¢– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/19 1:35 PM8146¢45¢ / 35¢46¢ / 55¢– / –
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/19 1:35 PM3848¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/19 1:40 PM7846¢42¢ / 34¢47¢ / 54¢– / –
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/19 2:10 PM8252¢39¢ / 40¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/19 2:10 PM7454¢41¢ / 39¢55¢ / 46¢– / –
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/19 2:10 PM8054¢41¢ / 48¢55¢ / 46¢– / –
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/19 2:20 PM7560¢40¢ / 61¢60¢ / 41¢– / –
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/19 3:10 PM7444¢48¢ / 34¢45¢ / 56¢– / –
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/19 4:05 PM7444¢48¢ / 37¢44¢ / 56¢– / –
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/19 4:07 PM7442¢46¢ / 36¢42¢ / 59¢– / –
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/19 4:10 PM7361¢31¢ / 46¢62¢ / 39¢– / –
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/19 4:10 PM7452¢42¢ / 40¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 7:20 PM2848¢73¢ / 73¢48¢ / 53¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/18 8:30 PM14377¢23¢ / 78¢78¢ / 23¢78¢ / 24¢
Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks07/19 1:00 PM13579¢20¢ / 81¢81¢ / 20¢– / –
Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky07/19 4:00 PM13680¢19¢ / 82¢82¢ / 19¢– / –
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun07/19 7:00 PM10862¢40¢ / 61¢62¢ / 39¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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