SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 13 games · updated Jul 19, 8:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Atlanta BravesSan Diego PadresMLB07/20 7:15 PMKalshi43¢58¢+14.6113
Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay RaysMLB07/20 7:07 PMKalshi44¢56¢+12.4113
Boston Red SoxBaltimore OriolesMLB07/20 7:10 PMKalshi45¢56¢+10.8111
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/20 7:10 PMKalshi45¢56¢+10.7109
Houston AstrosMiami MarlinsMLB07/20 8:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.4112
New York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/20 7:05 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.0112
Minnesota TwinsCleveland GuardiansMLB07/20 6:40 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.4116

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins07/20 6:40 PM11648¢53¢ / 48¢49¢ / 52¢48¢ / 54¢
New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/20 7:05 PM11253¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays07/20 7:07 PM11356¢44¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢58¢ / 44¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/20 7:10 PM10956¢45¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles07/20 7:10 PM11156¢45¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/20 7:15 PM11358¢43¢ / 59¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 43¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets07/20 7:40 PM11263¢36¢ / 65¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants07/20 7:40 PM9551¢49¢ / 51¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 51¢
Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers07/20 8:05 PM11250¢48¢ / 53¢52¢ / 50¢54¢ / 49¢
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox07/20 8:05 PM11360¢40¢ / 61¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 40¢
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins07/20 8:10 PM11255¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 46¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces07/20 8:00 PM13421¢82¢ / 20¢20¢ / 81¢21¢ / 82¢
Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty07/20 8:00 PM13341¢62¢ / 40¢40¢ / 61¢42¢ / 61¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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