SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 12 games · updated Jul 16, 8:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/17 1:35 PM10453¢ / 56¢ / 45¢ /
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/17 7:05 PM12149¢48¢ / 53¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 51¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/17 7:10 PM12953¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/17 7:15 PM12955¢55¢ / 47¢55¢ / 46¢56¢ / 46¢
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/17 7:15 PM6864¢66¢ / 35¢66¢ / 35¢ /
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/17 7:40 PM9957¢59¢ / 43¢59¢ / 42¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/17 8:05 PM8456¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 44¢ /
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/17 8:10 PM12950¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 51¢
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/17 8:10 PM1149¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm07/17 7:30 PM13476¢78¢ / 23¢78¢ / 23¢ /
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks07/17 7:30 PM13351¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢ /
Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream07/17 7:30 PM13428¢27¢ / 74¢28¢ / 73¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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