SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 20, 4:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Atlanta BravesSan Diego PadresMLB07/20 7:15 PMKalshi43¢57¢+14.1135
Boston Red SoxBaltimore OriolesMLB07/20 7:10 PMKalshi44¢56¢+12.1135
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/20 7:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.2131
Houston AstrosMiami MarlinsMLB07/20 8:10 PMKalshi46¢55¢+8.9135
Washington NationalsColorado RockiesMLB07/20 8:40 PMKalshi47¢53¢+5.6136
New York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/20 7:05 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.3134
Minnesota TwinsCleveland GuardiansMLB07/20 6:40 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.3134
Los Angeles AngelsSt. Louis CardinalsMLB07/20 10:10 PMKalshi49¢52¢+3.2133
Toronto TempoLas Vegas AcesWNBA07/20 8:00 PMProphetX17¢19¢+2.7137
Kansas City RoyalsSan Francisco GiantsMLB07/20 7:40 PMKalshi49¢52¢+2.6135

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins07/20 6:40 PM13448¢53¢ / 48¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢
New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/20 7:05 PM13452¢48¢ / 53¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 49¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays07/20 7:07 PM13658¢42¢ / 59¢60¢ / 41¢60¢ / 42¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/20 7:10 PM13155¢45¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles07/20 7:10 PM13556¢44¢ / 57¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/20 7:15 PM13557¢43¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets07/20 7:40 PM13764¢36¢ / 66¢65¢ / 36¢66¢ / 35¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants07/20 7:40 PM13552¢49¢ / 52¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers07/20 8:05 PM13551¢49¢ / 52¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 50¢
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox07/20 8:05 PM13561¢39¢ / 61¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins07/20 8:10 PM13555¢46¢ / 55¢54¢ / 47¢55¢ / 46¢
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals07/20 8:40 PM13647¢54¢ / 47¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 53¢
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds07/20 9:40 PM13458¢42¢ / 59¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics07/20 9:40 PM13659¢58¢ / 46¢60¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢
Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals07/20 10:10 PM13352¢49¢ / 52¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces07/20 8:00 PM13719¢83¢ / 18¢18¢ / 83¢17¢ / 84¢
Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty07/20 8:00 PM12840¢61¢ / 40¢40¢ / 61¢40¢ / 61¢
Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx07/20 10:00 PM14020¢83¢ / 19¢19¢ / 82¢19¢ / 82¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/20 10:00 PM14175¢26¢ / 75¢75¢ / 26¢76¢ / 26¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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