SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 20, 12:15 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Atlanta BravesSan Diego PadresMLB07/20 7:15 PMKalshi43¢57¢+14.2128
Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay RaysMLB07/20 7:07 PMKalshi44¢57¢+12.9128
Boston Red SoxBaltimore OriolesMLB07/20 7:10 PMKalshi45¢56¢+11.0126
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/20 7:10 PMKalshi45¢56¢+10.6125
Houston AstrosMiami MarlinsMLB07/20 8:10 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.3128
Washington NationalsColorado RockiesMLB07/20 8:40 PMKalshi47¢52¢+5.5128
New York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/20 7:05 PMKalshi48¢53¢+5.0129
Minnesota TwinsCleveland GuardiansMLB07/20 6:40 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.3128
Los Angeles AngelsSt. Louis CardinalsMLB07/20 10:10 PMKalshi49¢52¢+3.4123

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins07/20 6:40 PM12848¢53¢ / 48¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 53¢
New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/20 7:05 PM12953¢48¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢52¢ / 48¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays07/20 7:07 PM12857¢44¢ / 58¢57¢ / 44¢58¢ / 43¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/20 7:10 PM12556¢45¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles07/20 7:10 PM12656¢45¢ / 57¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 44¢
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/20 7:15 PM12857¢43¢ / 58¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 44¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets07/20 7:40 PM12963¢36¢ / 66¢65¢ / 36¢66¢ / 35¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants07/20 7:40 PM12951¢49¢ / 52¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers07/20 8:05 PM12851¢49¢ / 53¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 50¢
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox07/20 8:05 PM12860¢40¢ / 61¢61¢ / 40¢62¢ / 39¢
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins07/20 8:10 PM12855¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 46¢
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals07/20 8:40 PM12848¢54¢ / 47¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds07/20 9:40 PM12558¢41¢ / 59¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics07/20 9:40 PM12559¢58¢ / 46¢60¢ / 41¢61¢ / 41¢
Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals07/20 10:10 PM12352¢49¢ / 52¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 49¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces07/20 8:00 PM13619¢83¢ / 19¢18¢ / 83¢18¢ / 83¢
Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty07/20 8:00 PM13741¢60¢ / 41¢41¢ / 60¢40¢ / 62¢
Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx07/20 10:00 PM14120¢83¢ / 19¢18¢ / 83¢19¢ / 82¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/20 10:00 PM14075¢25¢ / 75¢75¢ / 26¢76¢ / 26¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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