SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 21, 11:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota TwinsMLB07/21 6:40 PMKalshi43¢57¢+14.3139
Atlanta BravesSan Diego PadresMLB07/21 7:15 PMKalshi44¢57¢+12.9138
Boston Red SoxBaltimore OriolesMLB07/21 7:10 PMKalshi44¢56¢+12.0140
New York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/21 7:05 PMKalshi44¢56¢+11.9139
Milwaukee BrewersNew York MetsMLB07/21 7:40 PMKalshi44¢55¢+11.4138
Arizona DiamondbacksAthleticsMLB07/21 9:40 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.3136
Texas RangersChicago White SoxMLB07/21 8:05 PMKalshi47¢54¢+7.2138
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/21 6:40 PMKalshi47¢54¢+6.8140
Houston AstrosMiami MarlinsMLB07/21 8:10 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.5137
Chicago CubsDetroit TigersMLB07/21 8:05 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.2137
Seattle MarinersCincinnati RedsMLB07/21 9:40 PMKalshi49¢52¢+2.7137

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins07/21 6:40 PM13957¢43¢ / 58¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/21 6:40 PM14054¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/21 7:05 PM13956¢44¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays07/21 7:07 PM13849¢52¢ / 49¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 50¢
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles07/21 7:10 PM14056¢44¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/21 7:15 PM13857¢44¢ / 58¢57¢ / 44¢58¢ / 43¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets07/21 7:40 PM13855¢44¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants07/21 7:40 PM13849¢51¢ / 50¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 51¢
Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers07/21 8:05 PM13752¢48¢ / 53¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox07/21 8:05 PM13854¢47¢ / 54¢55¢ / 46¢53¢ / 47¢
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins07/21 8:10 PM13753¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals07/21 8:40 PM13950¢51¢ / 50¢49¢ / 52¢50¢ / 51¢
Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals07/21 9:38 PM13851¢49¢ / 51¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics07/21 9:40 PM13655¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds07/21 9:40 PM13752¢49¢ / 52¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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