SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 9 games · updated Jul 19, 2:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | MLB | 07/19 7:20 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 54¢ | +14.0 | 124 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/19 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 47¢ | +7.7 | 141 |
| New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/19 7:20 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 46¢ | +5.0 | 124 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/19 2:20 PM | 134 | 61¢ | 40¢ / 62¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/19 3:10 PM | 140 | 40¢ | 49¢ / 32¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/19 4:05 PM | 140 | 43¢ | 48¢ / 35¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/19 4:07 PM | 140 | 43¢ | 44¢ / 35¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/19 4:10 PM | 140 | 64¢ | 28¢ / 44¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 65¢ / 35¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/19 4:10 PM | 141 | 53¢ | 37¢ / 39¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/19 7:20 PM | 124 | 46¢ | 41¢ / 40¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky | 07/19 4:00 PM | 144 | 81¢ | 19¢ / 82¢ | 83¢ / 18¢ | 82¢ / 19¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun | 07/19 7:00 PM | 145 | 62¢ | 38¢ / 61¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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