SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 20, 2:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 07/20 9:40 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 56¢ | +13.4 | 139 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/20 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | +12.5 | 138 |
| Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/20 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +9.6 | 140 |
| Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/20 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +7.0 | 138 |
| Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/20 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +6.3 | 138 |
| Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | MLB | 07/20 8:40 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +6.2 | 139 |
| New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | MLB | 07/20 7:05 PM | Kalshi | 49¢ | 52¢ | +2.7 | 139 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/20 6:40 PM | 138 | 46¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/20 7:05 PM | 139 | 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/20 7:07 PM | 141 | 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/20 7:10 PM | 138 | 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/20 7:10 PM | 139 | 58¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/20 7:15 PM | 140 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 07/20 7:40 PM | 139 | 66¢ | 35¢ / 67¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 07/20 7:40 PM | 137 | 51¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 07/20 8:05 PM | 140 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 07/20 8:05 PM | 139 | 60¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 07/20 8:10 PM | 138 | 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 07/20 8:40 PM | 139 | 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/20 9:40 PM | 139 | 56¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | 07/20 9:40 PM | 139 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 46¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/20 10:10 PM | 139 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces | 07/20 8:00 PM | 140 | 19¢ | 84¢ / 18¢ | 18¢ / 83¢ | 18¢ / 84¢ |
| Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty | 07/20 8:00 PM | 141 | 36¢ | 65¢ / 35¢ | 35¢ / 66¢ | 35¢ / 67¢ |
| Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx | 07/20 10:00 PM | 144 | 22¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ | 20¢ / 81¢ | 20¢ / 81¢ |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics | 07/20 10:00 PM | 146 | 76¢ | 24¢ / 77¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | 78¢ / 24¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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