SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 26 games · updated Jul 18, 4:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/19 1:40 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 54¢ | +11.9 | 52 |
| Washington Nationals | Athletics | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 51¢ | +11.1 | 141 |
| New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | MLB | 07/19 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 54¢ | +10.1 | 60 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | MLB | 07/19 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 47¢ | +7.4 | 60 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 54¢ | +7.1 | 51 |
| Athletics | Washington Nationals | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 49¢ | +6.9 | 141 |
| Miami Marlins | Milwaukee Brewers | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 46¢ | +3.0 | 51 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/18 4:10 PM | 99 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/18 4:10 PM | 95 | 43¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 43¢ / 60¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 7:10 PM | 115 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/18 8:08 PM | 139 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/18 8:08 PM | 140 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/18 10:05 PM | 141 | 49¢ | 42¢ / 40¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/18 10:07 PM | 140 | 36¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/19 12:15 PM | 59 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/19 1:35 PM | 60 | 53¢ | 51¢ / 40¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 07/19 1:35 PM | 60 | 46¢ | 45¢ / 44¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/19 1:35 PM | 1 | 50¢ | 54¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/19 1:40 PM | 52 | 46¢ | 49¢ / 42¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/19 2:10 PM | 51 | 52¢ | 74¢ / 74¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/19 2:10 PM | 51 | 54¢ | 47¢ / 43¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/19 2:10 PM | 50 | 54¢ | 74¢ / 74¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/19 2:20 PM | 51 | 60¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/19 3:10 PM | 52 | 44¢ | 72¢ / 73¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | – / – |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/19 4:05 PM | 50 | 45¢ | 74¢ / 74¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/19 4:07 PM | 50 | 42¢ | 73¢ / 74¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | – / – |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/19 4:10 PM | 50 | 60¢ | 74¢ / 74¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/19 4:10 PM | 50 | 52¢ | 74¢ / 74¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire | 07/18 8:00 PM | 141 | 85¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | 88¢ / 14¢ |
| Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty | 07/18 8:00 PM | 144 | 45¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics | 07/18 8:30 PM | 142 | 76¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 78¢ / 24¢ |
| Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/19 1:00 PM | 119 | 77¢ | 80¢ / 21¢ | 80¢ / 21¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky | 07/19 4:00 PM | 117 | 79¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
© SharpDelta · sharpdelta.com