SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 17, 10:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 55¢ | +13.8 | 115 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | MLB | 07/18 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 59¢ | +13.4 | 116 |
| Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Angels | MLB | 07/18 10:07 PM | Kalshi | 50¢ | 63¢ | +12.5 | 70 |
| Atlanta Braves | Texas Rangers | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 51¢ | +12.1 | 110 |
| San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners | MLB | 07/18 8:08 PM | Kalshi | 33¢ | 45¢ | +11.8 | 105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Chicago White Sox | MLB | 07/18 3:07 PM | Kalshi | 37¢ | 49¢ | +11.7 | 80 |
| Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 51¢ | +11.5 | 114 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | MLB | 07/18 8:08 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 50¢ | +11.4 | 107 |
| Athletics | Washington Nationals | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 54¢ | +10.8 | 73 |
| New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/18 8:08 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 50¢ | +10.6 | 107 |
| Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 49¢ | +10.5 | 114 |
| Chicago White Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/18 3:07 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 51¢ | +10.3 | 80 |
| Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 52¢ | +10.2 | 114 |
| Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 49¢ | +9.9 | 110 |
| Los Angeles Angels | Detroit Tigers | MLB | 07/18 10:07 PM | Kalshi | 28¢ | 37¢ | +9.5 | 70 |
| Miami Marlins | Milwaukee Brewers | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 37¢ | 45¢ | +8.2 | 115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 48¢ | +7.8 | 114 |
| New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | MLB | 07/18 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 33¢ | 41¢ | +7.6 | 116 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 41¢ | 48¢ | +6.8 | 114 |
| Washington Nationals | Athletics | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 46¢ | +6.2 | 73 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 1:10 PM | 41 | 54¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/18 2:20 PM | 121 | 57¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/18 3:07 PM | 80 | 49¢ | 37¢ / 41¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/18 3:10 PM | 65 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 07/18 4:05 PM | 116 | 59¢ | 46¢ / 33¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/18 4:10 PM | 29 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/18 4:10 PM | 114 | 52¢ | 54¢ / 41¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/18 4:10 PM | 114 | 52¢ | 42¢ / 40¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/18 4:10 PM | 110 | 51¢ | 39¢ / 39¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/18 4:10 PM | 115 | 55¢ | 41¢ / 37¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/18 4:10 PM | 114 | 51¢ | 39¢ / 39¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 7:10 PM | 58 | 49¢ | 73¢ / 73¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | – / – |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/18 8:08 PM | 107 | 50¢ | 39¢ / 39¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/18 8:08 PM | 105 | 55¢ | 40¢ / 33¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/18 10:05 PM | 73 | 54¢ | 43¢ / 40¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/18 10:07 PM | 70 | 37¢ | 28¢ / 50¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire | 07/18 8:00 PM | 134 | 85¢ | 86¢ / 16¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | – / – |
| Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty | 07/18 8:00 PM | 120 | 46¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | – / – |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics | 07/18 8:30 PM | 135 | 77¢ | 77¢ / 23¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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