SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 9 games · updated Jul 19, 2:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi40¢54¢+14.0124
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi39¢47¢+7.7141
New York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi41¢46¢+5.0124

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/19 2:20 PM13461¢40¢ / 62¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 38¢
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/19 3:10 PM14040¢49¢ / 32¢39¢ / 62¢40¢ / 61¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/19 4:05 PM14043¢48¢ / 35¢42¢ / 59¢41¢ / 59¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/19 4:07 PM14043¢44¢ / 35¢44¢ / 57¢44¢ / 57¢
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/19 4:10 PM14064¢28¢ / 44¢66¢ / 35¢65¢ / 35¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/19 4:10 PM14153¢37¢ / 39¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 47¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 7:20 PM12446¢41¢ / 40¢48¢ / 53¢47¢ / 54¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky07/19 4:00 PM14481¢19¢ / 82¢83¢ / 18¢82¢ / 19¢
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun07/19 7:00 PM14562¢38¢ / 61¢63¢ / 38¢62¢ / 38¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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