SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Sep 8, 12:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians09/08 6:35 PM17453¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets09/08 6:40 PM17653¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros09/08 6:40 PM17456¢57¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins09/08 6:40 PM17556¢56¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢56¢ / 45¢
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels09/08 6:45 PM17657¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies09/08 7:05 PM17674¢76¢ / 25¢75¢ / 25¢75¢ / 26¢
Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays09/08 7:15 PM17351¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢51¢ / 50¢
Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks09/08 7:40 PM17448¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢48¢ / 53¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs09/08 7:40 PM17566¢67¢ / 35¢66¢ / 34¢66¢ / 35¢
Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates09/08 7:40 PM17656¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢57¢ / 44¢
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers09/08 9:40 PM16956¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays09/08 9:40 PM17538¢38¢ / 63¢38¢ / 62¢38¢ / 63¢
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals09/08 9:40 PM17562¢63¢ / 38¢63¢ / 37¢63¢ / 38¢
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals09/08 9:45 PM17650¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds09/08 10:10 PM17473¢74¢ / 27¢73¢ / 27¢74¢ / 27¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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