SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 23 games · updated Jul 25, 6:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland GuardiansMLB07/26 12:15 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.355
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.248
Minnesota TwinsAthleticsMLB07/26 2:10 PMKalshi46¢56¢+10.051
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati RedsMLB07/26 2:15 PMKalshi45¢55¢+9.961
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/26 1:40 PMKalshi46¢54¢+8.162
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.062
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsMLB07/25 6:40 PMKalshi47¢53¢+6.0144
Chicago White SoxHouston AstrosMLB07/25 7:10 PMKalshi47¢53¢+5.9143
Arizona DiamondbacksWashington NationalsMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi47¢53¢+5.663

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/25 6:40 PM14453¢47¢ / 54¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 47¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/25 7:05 PM14251¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/25 7:10 PM14357¢42¢ / 59¢57¢ / 44¢58¢ / 42¢
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/25 7:10 PM14353¢47¢ / 54¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 47¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/25 7:10 PM14367¢32¢ / 69¢68¢ / 33¢68¢ / 32¢
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/25 7:15 PM14450¢52¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/25 7:15 PM14341¢60¢ / 41¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 59¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/25 7:15 PM14350¢51¢ / 50¢49¢ / 52¢50¢ / 50¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/26 12:15 PM5555¢45¢ / 56¢55¢ / 46¢– / –
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/26 1:35 PM6151¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/26 1:35 PM4855¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢– / –
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/26 1:35 PM6253¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢– / –
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/26 1:35 PM6347¢54¢ / 47¢48¢ / 53¢– / –
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/26 1:40 PM5942¢60¢ / 42¢42¢ / 60¢– / –
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/26 1:40 PM6254¢46¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢– / –
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/26 1:40 PM162¢39¢ / 62¢64¢ / 37¢– / –
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/26 2:10 PM5951¢49¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/26 2:10 PM5156¢46¢ / 55¢57¢ / 44¢– / –
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/26 2:10 PM6071¢27¢ / 74¢73¢ / 28¢– / –
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/26 2:15 PM6155¢45¢ / 55¢55¢ / 46¢– / –
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/26 2:35 PM6050¢50¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢– / –
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/26 4:05 PM6151¢49¢ / 52¢53¢ / 48¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Team Coop vs Team Spoon07/25 8:30 PM10540¢– / –40¢ / 61¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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