SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 18, 8:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Chicago Cubs | Minnesota Twins | MLB | 07/18 2:20 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 57¢ | +14.7 | 139 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | MLB | 07/18 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 60¢ | +14.3 | 139 |
| Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 52¢ | +12.6 | 140 |
| Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 38¢ | 50¢ | +11.7 | 141 |
| San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners | MLB | 07/18 8:08 PM | Kalshi | 33¢ | 44¢ | +11.4 | 138 |
| Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 50¢ | +11.3 | 141 |
| Chicago White Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/18 3:07 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 51¢ | +11.2 | 130 |
| Atlanta Braves | Texas Rangers | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 51¢ | +11.2 | 141 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | MLB | 07/18 8:08 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 51¢ | +11.1 | 138 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Chicago White Sox | MLB | 07/18 3:07 PM | Kalshi | 38¢ | 49¢ | +10.8 | 130 |
| Athletics | Washington Nationals | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 54¢ | +10.5 | 137 |
| Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 49¢ | +9.8 | 141 |
| Los Angeles Angels | Detroit Tigers | MLB | 07/18 10:07 PM | Kalshi | 27¢ | 37¢ | +9.7 | 139 |
| Miami Marlins | Milwaukee Brewers | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 36¢ | 45¢ | +9.2 | 140 |
| New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/18 8:08 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 49¢ | +8.9 | 138 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 48¢ | +8.8 | 140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 48¢ | +8.4 | 140 |
| San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals | MLB | 07/18 4:10 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 51¢ | +8.3 | 138 |
| New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | MLB | 07/18 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 32¢ | 40¢ | +7.7 | 139 |
| Washington Nationals | Athletics | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 39¢ | 46¢ | +7.5 | 137 |
| Minnesota Twins | Chicago Cubs | MLB | 07/18 2:20 PM | Kalshi | 37¢ | 43¢ | +6.3 | 139 |
| Colorado Rockies | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 07/18 3:10 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 49¢ | +6.0 | 136 |
| Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | MLB | 07/18 3:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 51¢ | +4.1 | 136 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 1:10 PM | 130 | 53¢ | 75¢ / 75¢ | – / – | 55¢ / 47¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/18 2:20 PM | 139 | 57¢ | 42¢ / 37¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/18 3:07 PM | 130 | 49¢ | 38¢ / 40¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/18 3:10 PM | 136 | 49¢ | 43¢ / 47¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 07/18 4:05 PM | 139 | 60¢ | 46¢ / 32¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/18 4:10 PM | 138 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 43¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/18 4:10 PM | 140 | 52¢ | 54¢ / 39¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/18 4:10 PM | 140 | 52¢ | 39¢ / 40¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/18 4:10 PM | 141 | 51¢ | 40¢ / 39¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/18 4:10 PM | 140 | 55¢ | 39¢ / 36¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/18 4:10 PM | 141 | 50¢ | 39¢ / 38¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 7:10 PM | 112 | 50¢ | 67¢ / 67¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 51¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/18 8:08 PM | 138 | 49¢ | 40¢ / 40¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/18 8:08 PM | 138 | 56¢ | 39¢ / 33¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/18 10:05 PM | 137 | 54¢ | 43¢ / 39¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/18 10:07 PM | 139 | 37¢ | 27¢ / 48¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire | 07/18 8:00 PM | 141 | 85¢ | 86¢ / 14¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ |
| Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty | 07/18 8:00 PM | 142 | 46¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics | 07/18 8:30 PM | 139 | 78¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 79¢ / 22¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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