SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 26 games · updated Sep 5, 4:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)	Start (ET)	Books	Fair A	Kalshi A / B	Polymarket A / B	ProphetX A / B
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	09/05 6:05 PM	173	59¢	60¢ / 41¢	59¢ / 41¢	60¢ / 41¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	09/05 6:10 PM	174	59¢	60¢ / 42¢	59¢ / 42¢	59¢ / 42¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	09/05 6:40 PM	174	42¢	42¢ / 59¢	41¢ / 59¢	42¢ / 58¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	09/05 6:40 PM	173	62¢	64¢ / 37¢	63¢ / 37¢	63¢ / 37¢
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	09/05 7:05 PM	174	50¢	51¢ / 50¢	51¢ / 50¢	51¢ / 50¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	09/05 7:05 PM	174	46¢	46¢ / 55¢	46¢ / 55¢	47¢ / 54¢
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	09/05 7:10 PM	173	50¢	50¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	50¢ / 50¢
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	09/05 7:10 PM	174	52¢	53¢ / 48¢	53¢ / 48¢	53¢ / 48¢
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	09/05 7:15 PM	170	54¢	55¢ / 46¢	55¢ / 45¢	55¢ / 46¢
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	09/05 7:15 PM	173	50¢	50¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	49¢ / 51¢
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	09/05 8:10 PM	171	47¢	47¢ / 54¢	46¢ / 54¢	47¢ / 54¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	09/05 9:10 PM	171	66¢	67¢ / 34¢	66¢ / 34¢	67¢ / 34¢
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	09/05 9:40 PM	174	68¢	69¢ / 32¢	68¢ / 32¢	69¢ / 32¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	09/06 12:10 PM	85	41¢	42¢ / 58¢	42¢ / 59¢	– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	09/06 1:10 PM	83	50¢	51¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	09/06 1:35 PM	79	45¢	45¢ / 55¢	46¢ / 55¢	– / –
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	09/06 1:35 PM	83	62¢	65¢ / 36¢	65¢ / 35¢	– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	09/06 1:40 PM	82	60¢	59¢ / 42¢	59¢ / 42¢	– / –
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	09/06 1:40 PM	4	55¢	57¢ / 45¢	56¢ / 44¢	– / –
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	09/06 1:40 PM	71	43¢	45¢ / 56¢	45¢ / 55¢	– / –
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	09/06 2:10 PM	68	48¢	50¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	09/06 2:10 PM	81	50¢	51¢ / 49¢	52¢ / 48¢	– / –
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	09/06 2:35 PM	69	51¢	50¢ / 50¢	48¢ / 52¢	– / –
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	09/06 3:10 PM	81	45¢	46¢ / 54¢	47¢ / 54¢	– / –
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	09/06 4:10 PM	79	50¢	50¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	09/06 4:10 PM	79	63¢	65¢ / 36¢	67¢ / 34¢	– / –

Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.