SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 21 games · updated Jul 28, 6:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians07/28 1:40 PM12459¢ / 60¢ / 41¢58¢ / 42¢
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles07/28 6:40 PM13956¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies07/28 6:40 PM13851¢52¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers07/28 6:40 PM13561¢63¢ / 39¢63¢ / 38¢62¢ / 39¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/28 6:40 PM13852¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays07/28 6:45 PM13556¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves07/28 7:10 PM13641¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians07/28 7:10 PM11346¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢48¢ / 55¢
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees07/28 7:40 PM13745¢46¢ / 55¢45¢ / 56¢45¢ / 56¢
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals07/28 7:40 PM13959¢61¢ / 41¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 40¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs07/28 7:45 PM12249¢50¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢50¢ / 52¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros07/28 9:38 PM12950¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies07/28 9:40 PM12962¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox07/28 9:40 PM13042¢42¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢43¢ / 59¢
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers07/28 9:45 PM12844¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 59¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners07/28 10:10 PM12862¢65¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun07/28 7:30 PM14767¢69¢ / 32¢69¢ / 32¢69¢ / 32¢
Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo07/28 8:00 PM14588¢90¢ / 11¢90¢ / 11¢91¢ / 11¢
Seattle Storm vs Indiana Fever07/28 9:30 PM14823¢23¢ / 78¢23¢ / 78¢23¢ / 78¢
Los Angeles Sparks vs New York Liberty07/28 10:00 PM14638¢38¢ / 64¢37¢ / 64¢36¢ / 65¢
Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire07/28 10:00 PM14583¢85¢ / 16¢84¢ / 17¢85¢ / 17¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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