SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Jul 26, 6:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Boston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi44¢56¢+11.9137
Minnesota TwinsAthleticsMLB07/26 2:10 PMKalshi45¢56¢+11.1137
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland GuardiansMLB07/26 12:15 PMKalshi45¢55¢+10.3137
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati RedsMLB07/26 2:15 PMKalshi45¢55¢+9.9137
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi46¢54¢+7.5138
Miami MarlinsSan Diego PadresMLB07/26 1:40 PMKalshi47¢54¢+7.0136
Arizona DiamondbacksWashington NationalsMLB07/26 1:35 PMKalshi49¢52¢+3.2137

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians07/26 12:15 PM13755¢45¢ / 57¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves07/26 1:35 PM13850¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 51¢
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays07/26 1:35 PM13756¢44¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs07/26 1:35 PM13854¢46¢ / 55¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 46¢
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/26 1:35 PM13748¢53¢ / 49¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/26 1:40 PM13741¢60¢ / 41¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres07/26 1:40 PM13654¢47¢ / 54¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/26 1:40 PM13563¢38¢ / 64¢64¢ / 37¢63¢ / 38¢
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros07/26 2:10 PM13651¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics07/26 2:10 PM13756¢45¢ / 56¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies07/26 2:10 PM13774¢25¢ / 76¢76¢ / 25¢76¢ / 25¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds07/26 2:15 PM13755¢45¢ / 56¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 45¢
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners07/26 2:35 PM13750¢51¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels07/26 4:05 PM13651¢49¢ / 52¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees07/26 7:20 PM13860¢39¢ / 62¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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