SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 12 games · updated Jul 16, 8:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/17 1:35 PM | 104 | 53¢ | – / – | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/17 7:05 PM | 121 | 49¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/17 7:10 PM | 129 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/17 7:15 PM | 129 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/17 7:15 PM | 68 | 64¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/17 7:40 PM | 99 | 57¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/17 8:05 PM | 84 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/17 8:10 PM | 129 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/17 8:10 PM | 11 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm | 07/17 7:30 PM | 134 | 76¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/17 7:30 PM | 133 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream | 07/17 7:30 PM | 134 | 28¢ | 27¢ / 74¢ | 28¢ / 73¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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