SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 10 games · updated Sep 6, 6:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 09/06 6:20 PM | 167 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | 09/06 10:10 PM | 173 | 64¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 09/07 1:05 PM | 142 | 60¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | 09/07 1:10 PM | 140 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians | 09/07 1:35 PM | 142 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | 09/07 1:35 PM | 46 | 60¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
| Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 09/07 2:10 PM | 4 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | 09/07 2:10 PM | 104 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | 09/07 3:10 PM | 4 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | 09/07 5:10 PM | 3 | 60¢ | 63¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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