SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Sep 8, 7:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks09/08 7:40 PM17650¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 49¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs09/08 7:40 PM17665¢66¢ / 35¢65¢ / 35¢65¢ / 36¢
Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates09/08 7:40 PM17656¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢57¢ / 44¢
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers09/08 9:40 PM17254¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢53¢ / 47¢
Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays09/08 9:40 PM17538¢38¢ / 63¢37¢ / 63¢38¢ / 62¢
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals09/08 9:40 PM17663¢64¢ / 38¢63¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals09/08 9:45 PM17550¢50¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds09/08 10:10 PM17473¢74¢ / 26¢74¢ / 26¢74¢ / 27¢
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins09/09 1:10 PM9654¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢ /
Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays09/09 3:05 PM437¢36¢ / 65¢36¢ / 65¢ /
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals09/09 3:45 PM450¢50¢ / 50¢49¢ / 51¢ /
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers09/09 4:10 PM6659¢60¢ / 42¢60¢ / 40¢ /
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals09/09 4:10 PM8563¢65¢ / 37¢65¢ / 36¢ /
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians09/09 6:35 PM8950¢51¢ / 49¢51¢ / 50¢ /
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets09/09 6:40 PM9052¢53¢ / 48¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros09/09 6:40 PM8759¢60¢ / 41¢59¢ / 41¢ /
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels09/09 6:45 PM9064¢66¢ / 35¢66¢ / 34¢ /
New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies09/09 7:05 PM6866¢69¢ / 32¢69¢ / 32¢ /
Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays09/09 7:15 PM6653¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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