SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 5 games · updated Jul 23, 12:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota TwinsMLB07/23 1:10 PMKalshi43¢57¢+14.1133
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/23 5:15 PMKalshi49¢53¢+3.6132

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/23 12:15 PM10870¢31¢ / 71¢71¢ / 30¢71¢ / 30¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins07/23 1:10 PM13357¢43¢ / 58¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays07/23 3:07 PM13349¢52¢ / 49¢50¢ / 51¢49¢ / 51¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/23 5:15 PM13253¢49¢ / 52¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals07/23 6:40 PM13366¢33¢ / 68¢68¢ / 33¢67¢ / 33¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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