SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 18, 10:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Chicago CubsMinnesota TwinsMLB07/18 2:20 PMKalshi42¢56¢+14.2138
Atlanta BravesTexas RangersMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi38¢51¢+13.2140
Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland GuardiansMLB07/18 7:10 PMKalshi39¢51¢+12.0117
Toronto Blue JaysChicago White SoxMLB07/18 3:07 PMKalshi38¢50¢+12.0138
Baltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi38¢50¢+12.0140
Houston AstrosBaltimore OriolesMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢50¢+11.0140
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi39¢50¢+10.8136
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢49¢+10.5138
San Francisco GiantsSeattle MarinersMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi34¢44¢+10.3137
New York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/18 8:08 PMKalshi40¢50¢+10.2136
Chicago White SoxToronto Blue JaysMLB07/18 3:07 PMKalshi40¢50¢+10.0138
Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/18 7:10 PMKalshi39¢49¢+10.0117
New York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesMLB07/18 4:05 PMKalshi30¢40¢+9.7138
Los Angeles AngelsDetroit TigersMLB07/18 10:07 PMKalshi27¢37¢+9.7138
Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/18 1:10 PMKalshi44¢54¢+9.5132
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi41¢51¢+9.5138
AthleticsWashington NationalsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi44¢53¢+9.3139
Colorado RockiesCincinnati RedsMLB07/18 3:10 PMKalshi40¢49¢+9.2139
Texas RangersAtlanta BravesMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi40¢49¢+8.8140
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi39¢48¢+8.8139
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi36¢44¢+8.2138
Cincinnati RedsColorado RockiesMLB07/18 3:10 PMKalshi43¢51¢+7.8139
Washington NationalsAthleticsMLB07/18 10:05 PMKalshi39¢47¢+7.8139
San Diego PadresKansas City RoyalsMLB07/18 4:10 PMKalshi43¢51¢+7.7139
Minnesota TwinsChicago CubsMLB07/18 2:20 PMKalshi37¢44¢+6.8138
Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland GuardiansMLB07/18 1:10 PMKalshi40¢46¢+6.5132

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 1:10 PM13254¢44¢ / 40¢– / –54¢ / 46¢
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/18 2:20 PM13856¢42¢ / 37¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/18 3:07 PM13850¢38¢ / 40¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/18 3:10 PM13949¢40¢ / 43¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/18 4:05 PM13860¢45¢ / 30¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 38¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/18 4:10 PM13949¢49¢ / 43¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/18 4:10 PM13952¢54¢ / 39¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/18 4:10 PM13851¢41¢ / 39¢51¢ / 50¢49¢ / 51¢
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/18 4:10 PM14051¢38¢ / 40¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/18 4:10 PM13856¢39¢ / 36¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/18 4:10 PM14050¢39¢ / 38¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 50¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/18 7:10 PM11749¢39¢ / 39¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 51¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/18 8:08 PM13650¢40¢ / 39¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 49¢
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/18 8:08 PM13756¢39¢ / 34¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/18 10:05 PM13953¢44¢ / 39¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/18 10:07 PM13837¢27¢ / 45¢38¢ / 63¢37¢ / 64¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire07/18 8:00 PM14285¢86¢ / 14¢87¢ / 14¢86¢ / 14¢
Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty07/18 8:00 PM14345¢45¢ / 56¢44¢ / 57¢44¢ / 58¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics07/18 8:30 PM14378¢78¢ / 23¢78¢ / 23¢79¢ / 22¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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