SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Sep 7, 6:15 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)	Start (ET)	Books	Fair A	Kalshi A / B	Polymarket A / B	ProphetX A / B
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	09/07 1:05 PM	173	60¢	61¢ / 41¢	60¢ / 40¢	60¢ / 40¢
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	09/07 1:10 PM	173	52¢	53¢ / 48¢	53¢ / 48¢	53¢ / 48¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	09/07 1:35 PM	173	54¢	54¢ / 47¢	54¢ / 46¢	55¢ / 47¢
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	09/07 1:35 PM	164	61¢	62¢ / 39¢	62¢ / 39¢	62¢ / 39¢
Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	09/07 2:10 PM	108	51¢	51¢ / 50¢	51¢ / 50¢	50¢ / 51¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	09/07 2:10 PM	171	53¢	54¢ / 47¢	54¢ / 46¢	– / –
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	09/07 3:10 PM	145	53¢	54¢ / 47¢	54¢ / 47¢	– / –
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	09/07 5:10 PM	174	64¢	65¢ / 36¢	65¢ / 36¢	65¢ / 36¢
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	09/07 8:10 PM	174	55¢	55¢ / 46¢	54¢ / 46¢	54¢ / 47¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	09/07 9:10 PM	165	58¢	59¢ / 42¢	59¢ / 42¢	59¢ / 43¢
Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	09/07 10:05 PM	173	36¢	35¢ / 66¢	35¢ / 65¢	35¢ / 66¢

Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.

What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.