SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Sep 5, 12:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs | 09/05 4:10 PM | 174 | 46¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ |
| New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | 09/05 4:10 PM | 176 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 09/05 6:05 PM | 175 | 59¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | 09/05 6:10 PM | 174 | 59¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 09/05 6:40 PM | 175 | 41¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels | 09/05 6:40 PM | 174 | 62¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 09/05 7:05 PM | 176 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 09/05 7:05 PM | 175 | 46¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 09/05 7:10 PM | 173 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 09/05 7:10 PM | 174 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees | 09/05 7:15 PM | 175 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 09/05 7:15 PM | 173 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | 09/05 8:10 PM | 175 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | 09/05 9:10 PM | 175 | 66¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 09/05 9:40 PM | 174 | 68¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | 68¢ / 32¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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