SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 21 games · updated Jul 28, 11:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/28 1:40 PM | 132 | 59¢ | – / – | 60¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/28 6:40 PM | 143 | 56¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/28 6:40 PM | 142 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/28 6:40 PM | 140 | 61¢ | 63¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/28 6:40 PM | 141 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/28 6:45 PM | 140 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/28 7:10 PM | 140 | 41¢ | 41¢ / 61¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/28 7:10 PM | 117 | 46¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/28 7:40 PM | 141 | 46¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/28 7:40 PM | 141 | 59¢ | 61¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/28 7:45 PM | 135 | 49¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | 07/28 9:38 PM | 138 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 07/28 9:40 PM | 140 | 64¢ | 65¢ / 35¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/28 9:40 PM | 136 | 43¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/28 9:45 PM | 139 | 42¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/28 10:10 PM | 136 | 63¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun | 07/28 7:30 PM | 145 | 68¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ |
| Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo | 07/28 8:00 PM | 144 | 88¢ | 90¢ / 11¢ | 90¢ / 11¢ | 91¢ / 10¢ |
| Seattle Storm vs Indiana Fever | 07/28 9:30 PM | 146 | 23¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ | 22¢ / 79¢ | 22¢ / 79¢ |
| Los Angeles Sparks vs New York Liberty | 07/28 10:00 PM | 146 | 38¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ |
| Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire | 07/28 10:00 PM | 146 | 82¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ | 86¢ / 16¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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