SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 3 games · updated Jul 14, 9:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Portland Fire | Connecticut Sun | WNBA | 07/14 11:00 AM | ProphetX | 45¢ | 48¢ | +2.9 | 144 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| National League All Stars vs American League All Stars | 07/14 8:00 PM | 109 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Connecticut Sun vs Portland Fire | 07/14 11:00 AM | 144 | 52¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ |
| Toronto Tempo vs Washington Mystics | 07/14 7:00 PM | 141 | 45¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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