SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 14 games · updated Jul 20, 11:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota TwinsMLB07/21 6:40 PMKalshi43¢57¢+14.487
New York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesMLB07/21 7:05 PMKalshi43¢57¢+14.4114
Milwaukee BrewersNew York MetsMLB07/21 7:40 PMKalshi44¢57¢+12.7108
Atlanta BravesSan Diego PadresMLB07/21 7:15 PMKalshi44¢57¢+12.6108
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/21 6:40 PMKalshi46¢55¢+9.3112
Houston AstrosMiami MarlinsMLB07/21 8:10 PMKalshi46¢54¢+8.3109

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins07/21 6:40 PM8757¢43¢ / 58¢57¢ / 44¢ /
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/21 6:40 PM11255¢46¢ / 55¢55¢ / 46¢ /
New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/21 7:05 PM11457¢43¢ / 58¢58¢ / 43¢ /
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays07/21 7:07 PM7649¢52¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢ /
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles07/21 7:10 PM257¢44¢ / 59¢58¢ / 43¢ /
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres07/21 7:15 PM10857¢44¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢ /
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets07/21 7:40 PM10857¢44¢ / 57¢57¢ / 44¢ /
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants07/21 7:40 PM10950¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers07/21 8:05 PM8950¢49¢ / 51¢52¢ / 49¢ /
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox07/21 8:05 PM153¢48¢ / 53¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins07/21 8:10 PM10954¢46¢ / 55¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals07/21 8:40 PM7451¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢ /
Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals07/21 9:38 PM7049¢52¢ / 49¢49¢ / 52¢ /
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds07/21 9:40 PM7151¢49¢ / 52¢52¢ / 49¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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