SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 19, 12:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi40¢54¢+13.988
Kansas City RoyalsSan Diego PadresMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi39¢52¢+12.6140
Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland GuardiansMLB07/19 1:40 PMKalshi37¢49¢+11.9140
Baltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi39¢48¢+9.0137
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi38¢47¢+8.8142
Los Angeles DodgersNew York YankeesMLB07/19 12:35 PMKalshi47¢54¢+7.3133
St. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksMLB07/19 4:10 PMKalshi40¢47¢+6.8141
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi39¢46¢+6.7138
San Diego PadresKansas City RoyalsMLB07/19 2:10 PMKalshi42¢48¢+6.4140
New York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersMLB07/19 7:20 PMKalshi40¢46¢+6.188
Texas RangersAtlanta BravesMLB07/19 1:35 PMKalshi48¢52¢+4.2140

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox07/19 12:15 PM12249¢53¢ / 49¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 12:35 PM13346¢55¢ / 47¢– / –45¢ / 55¢
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays07/19 1:35 PM14253¢35¢ / 38¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets07/19 1:35 PM14046¢45¢ / 32¢47¢ / 54¢46¢ / 54¢
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers07/19 1:35 PM14048¢53¢ / 48¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/19 1:40 PM14051¢35¢ / 37¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles07/19 2:10 PM13752¢36¢ / 39¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins07/19 2:10 PM13854¢38¢ / 39¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres07/19 2:10 PM14052¢39¢ / 42¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins07/19 2:20 PM14260¢40¢ / 61¢62¢ / 39¢61¢ / 39¢
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds07/19 3:10 PM13940¢48¢ / 33¢40¢ / 61¢40¢ / 60¢
Athletics vs Washington Nationals07/19 4:05 PM14044¢48¢ / 34¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers07/19 4:07 PM14042¢46¢ / 34¢42¢ / 59¢41¢ / 59¢
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants07/19 4:10 PM13963¢29¢ / 44¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 35¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals07/19 4:10 PM14153¢38¢ / 40¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers07/19 7:20 PM8846¢40¢ / 40¢48¢ / 53¢47¢ / 55¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks07/19 1:00 PM14277¢21¢ / 80¢79¢ / 22¢79¢ / 22¢
Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky07/19 4:00 PM14482¢19¢ / 82¢83¢ / 18¢83¢ / 19¢
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun07/19 7:00 PM14462¢40¢ / 61¢63¢ / 38¢62¢ / 38¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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