SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 18 games · updated Jul 17, 2:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/17 7:05 PM | 142 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/17 7:10 PM | 130 | 52¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/17 7:10 PM | 143 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/17 7:15 PM | 143 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/17 7:15 PM | 142 | 65¢ | 66¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/17 7:40 PM | 143 | 58¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/17 8:05 PM | 142 | 56¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/17 8:10 PM | 142 | 48¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/17 8:10 PM | 142 | 51¢ | 53¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/17 8:40 PM | 142 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/17 9:38 PM | 142 | 49¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/17 9:40 PM | 141 | 45¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/17 9:40 PM | 142 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/17 10:10 PM | 141 | 63¢ | 64¢ / 38¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm | 07/17 7:30 PM | 145 | 77¢ | 78¢ / 23¢ | 80¢ / 21¢ | 79¢ / 21¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/17 7:30 PM | 146 | 52¢ | 54¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream | 07/17 7:30 PM | 145 | 24¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun | 07/17 10:00 PM | 145 | 61¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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