SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 15 games · updated Sep 6, 2:15 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers09/06 12:10 PM17141¢41¢ / 61¢41¢ / 60¢40¢ / 60¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves09/06 1:10 PM17050¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox09/06 1:35 PM17145¢46¢ / 55¢45¢ / 55¢45¢ / 56¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels09/06 1:35 PM17063¢65¢ / 37¢64¢ / 36¢64¢ / 36¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers09/06 1:40 PM17060¢60¢ / 41¢59¢ / 41¢60¢ / 40¢
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants09/06 1:40 PM16058¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs09/06 1:40 PM17043¢44¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 57¢
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays09/06 2:10 PM16148¢49¢ / 52¢48¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks09/06 2:10 PM17050¢51¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays09/06 2:35 PM16151¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 51¢
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals09/06 3:10 PM17145¢45¢ / 55¢45¢ / 55¢45¢ / 55¢
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees09/06 4:10 PM17050¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics09/06 4:10 PM17164¢65¢ / 37¢65¢ / 36¢64¢ / 36¢
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins09/06 6:20 PM15956¢57¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 44¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals09/06 10:10 PM15966¢67¢ / 34¢66¢ / 34¢67¢ / 34¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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