SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Jul 19, 10:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/20 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 57¢ | +14.5 | 120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | MLB | 07/20 7:07 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 57¢ | +12.7 | 121 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/20 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | +11.8 | 115 |
| Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/20 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 56¢ | +10.8 | 118 |
| Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/20 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +10.4 | 120 |
| New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | MLB | 07/20 7:05 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +5.9 | 116 |
| Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | MLB | 07/20 8:40 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 52¢ | +5.4 | 120 |
| Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/20 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +4.3 | 119 |
| Los Angeles Angels | St. Louis Cardinals | MLB | 07/20 10:10 PM | Kalshi | 49¢ | 52¢ | +3.3 | 115 |
| Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | MLB | 07/20 8:05 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 51¢ | +3.0 | 119 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/20 6:40 PM | 119 | 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/20 7:05 PM | 116 | 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 53¢ / 49¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/20 7:07 PM | 121 | 57¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/20 7:10 PM | 115 | 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/20 7:10 PM | 118 | 56¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/20 7:15 PM | 120 | 57¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 07/20 7:40 PM | 120 | 63¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 07/20 7:40 PM | 119 | 51¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 07/20 8:05 PM | 119 | 51¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 07/20 8:05 PM | 120 | 60¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 07/20 8:10 PM | 120 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 07/20 8:40 PM | 120 | 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 49¢ / 54¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/20 9:40 PM | 116 | 58¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | 07/20 9:40 PM | 113 | 59¢ | 58¢ / 46¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/20 10:10 PM | 115 | 52¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 49¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces | 07/20 8:00 PM | 136 | 19¢ | 83¢ / 18¢ | 18¢ / 83¢ | 18¢ / 83¢ |
| Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty | 07/20 8:00 PM | 135 | 41¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ |
| Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx | 07/20 10:00 PM | 137 | 20¢ | 82¢ / 19¢ | 18¢ / 83¢ | 19¢ / 83¢ |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics | 07/20 10:00 PM | 138 | 73¢ | 27¢ / 75¢ | 75¢ / 26¢ | 76¢ / 26¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
© SharpDelta · sharpdelta.com