SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 23 games · updated Jul 18, 6:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Angels | MLB | 07/19 4:07 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 58¢ | +14.7 | 57 |
| Washington Nationals | Athletics | MLB | 07/19 4:05 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 56¢ | +13.6 | 58 |
| Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | MLB | 07/19 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 53¢ | +13.3 | 67 |
| Kansas City Royals | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 54¢ | +11.8 | 65 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 54¢ | +11.1 | 59 |
| Washington Nationals | Athletics | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 40¢ | 50¢ | +10.4 | 141 |
| New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | MLB | 07/19 1:35 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 54¢ | +9.1 | 65 |
| Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | MLB | 07/19 3:10 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 56¢ | +9.0 | 59 |
| Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/19 2:10 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 52¢ | +7.7 | 66 |
| Athletics | Washington Nationals | MLB | 07/18 10:05 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 50¢ | +7.6 | 141 |
| New York Liberty | Indiana Fever | WNBA | 07/18 8:00 PM | Kalshi | 46¢ | 53¢ | +7.0 | 143 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/19 1:40 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 54¢ | +5.9 | 64 |
| Cleveland Guardians | Pittsburgh Pirates | MLB | 07/19 1:40 PM | Kalshi | 42¢ | 46¢ | +4.1 | 64 |
| Portland Fire | Minnesota Lynx | WNBA | 07/18 8:00 PM | ProphetX | 12¢ | 15¢ | +2.8 | 141 |
| Chicago White Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | MLB | 07/19 12:15 PM | Kalshi | 49¢ | 52¢ | +2.7 | 65 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/18 7:10 PM | 127 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/18 8:08 PM | 142 | 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/18 10:05 PM | 141 | 50¢ | 42¢ / 40¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/18 10:07 PM | 141 | 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/19 12:15 PM | 65 | 48¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/19 1:35 PM | 67 | 53¢ | 40¢ / 50¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 07/19 1:35 PM | 65 | 46¢ | 45¢ / 45¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 07/19 1:35 PM | 2 | 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/19 1:40 PM | 64 | 46¢ | 42¢ / 48¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/19 2:10 PM | 66 | 52¢ | 44¢ / 46¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 07/19 2:10 PM | 59 | 54¢ | 43¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 07/19 2:10 PM | 65 | 54¢ | 42¢ / 48¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 07/19 2:20 PM | 60 | 60¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 07/19 3:10 PM | 59 | 44¢ | 43¢ / 47¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | – / – |
| Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 07/19 4:05 PM | 58 | 44¢ | 48¢ / 42¢ | 44¢ / 56¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 07/19 4:07 PM | 57 | 42¢ | 47¢ / 43¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | – / – |
| Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 07/19 4:10 PM | 59 | 61¢ | 73¢ / 73¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/19 4:10 PM | 60 | 52¢ | 73¢ / 73¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire | 07/18 8:00 PM | 141 | 85¢ | 14¢ / 87¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | 87¢ / 12¢ |
| Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty | 07/18 8:00 PM | 143 | 47¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics | 07/18 8:30 PM | 142 | 76¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | 78¢ / 24¢ |
| Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks | 07/19 1:00 PM | 123 | 78¢ | 21¢ / 81¢ | 80¢ / 21¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky | 07/19 4:00 PM | 122 | 80¢ | 20¢ / 81¢ | 82¢ / 19¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
© SharpDelta · sharpdelta.com