SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 18 games · updated Jul 28, 10:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies07/29 12:10 PM11341¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢42¢ / 60¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/29 12:35 PM12255¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 45¢
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays07/29 1:05 PM12247¢47¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 54¢
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles07/29 1:10 PM12260¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢61¢ / 41¢
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves07/29 1:10 PM7550¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢ /
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers07/29 3:45 PM12048¢47¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢ /
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies07/29 4:10 PM11956¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 43¢ /
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers07/29 6:40 PM11856¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢57¢ / 45¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians07/29 7:10 PM11245¢46¢ / 55¢46¢ / 54¢46¢ / 56¢
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves07/29 7:10 PM6239¢57¢ / 43¢41¢ / 59¢ /
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees07/29 7:40 PM11343¢43¢ / 57¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals07/29 7:40 PM10661¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢63¢ / 40¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs07/29 7:45 PM11348¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢49¢ / 53¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros07/29 9:38 PM11046¢46¢ / 55¢46¢ / 54¢ /
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox07/29 9:40 PM11142¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢ /
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners07/29 10:10 PM10958¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream07/29 8:00 PM13851¢51¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 49¢
Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries07/29 10:00 PM14135¢35¢ / 66¢35¢ / 66¢35¢ / 68¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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