SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 13 games · updated Sep 9, 6:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians09/09 6:35 PM17448¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢48¢ / 52¢
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets09/09 6:40 PM17553¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros09/09 6:40 PM17558¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels09/09 6:45 PM17565¢67¢ / 34¢66¢ / 34¢66¢ / 34¢
New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies09/09 7:05 PM17668¢69¢ / 31¢69¢ / 31¢69¢ / 32¢
Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays09/09 7:15 PM17653¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks09/09 7:40 PM17648¢49¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates09/09 7:40 PM17455¢56¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 46¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs09/09 7:40 PM17355¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds09/09 10:10 PM17271¢73¢ / 28¢72¢ / 28¢72¢ / 29¢
Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays09/10 12:15 PM10752¢53¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros09/10 1:05 PM10261¢64¢ / 38¢63¢ / 37¢ /
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers09/10 4:10 PM10554¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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