SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 13 games · updated Jul 19, 8:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | MLB | 07/20 7:15 PM | Kalshi | 43¢ | 58¢ | +14.6 | 113 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | MLB | 07/20 7:07 PM | Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | +12.4 | 113 |
| Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | MLB | 07/20 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 56¢ | +10.8 | 111 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | MLB | 07/20 7:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 56¢ | +10.7 | 109 |
| Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | MLB | 07/20 8:10 PM | Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | +10.4 | 112 |
| New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | MLB | 07/20 7:05 PM | Kalshi | 47¢ | 53¢ | +6.0 | 112 |
| Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | MLB | 07/20 6:40 PM | Kalshi | 48¢ | 52¢ | +4.4 | 116 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 07/20 6:40 PM | 116 | 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ |
| New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/20 7:05 PM | 112 | 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 07/20 7:07 PM | 113 | 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 07/20 7:10 PM | 109 | 56¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/20 7:10 PM | 111 | 56¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 07/20 7:15 PM | 113 | 58¢ | 43¢ / 59¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 07/20 7:40 PM | 112 | 63¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 07/20 7:40 PM | 95 | 51¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 51¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 07/20 8:05 PM | 112 | 50¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ | 54¢ / 49¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 07/20 8:05 PM | 113 | 60¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 07/20 8:10 PM | 112 | 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 46¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces | 07/20 8:00 PM | 134 | 21¢ | 82¢ / 20¢ | 20¢ / 81¢ | 21¢ / 82¢ |
| Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty | 07/20 8:00 PM | 133 | 41¢ | 62¢ / 40¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ | 42¢ / 61¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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