SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 17 games · updated Sep 4, 9:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)	Start (ET)	Books	Fair A	Kalshi A / B	Polymarket A / B	ProphetX A / B
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	09/04 9:40 PM	173	49¢	49¢ / 52¢	49¢ / 51¢	50¢ / 51¢
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	09/04 10:10 PM	173	67¢	68¢ / 33¢	67¢ / 33¢	68¢ / 33¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	09/04 10:10 PM	174	70¢	72¢ / 29¢	71¢ / 29¢	71¢ / 30¢
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	09/05 4:10 PM	4	45¢	44¢ / 56¢	43¢ / 57¢	– / –
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	09/05 4:10 PM	109	62¢	64¢ / 37¢	63¢ / 37¢	– / –
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	09/05 6:05 PM	108	59¢	60¢ / 41¢	59¢ / 41¢	– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	09/05 6:10 PM	64	58¢	58¢ / 45¢	56¢ / 44¢	– / –
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	09/05 6:40 PM	110	41¢	40¢ / 60¢	40¢ / 60¢	– / –
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	09/05 6:40 PM	112	61¢	63¢ / 38¢	62¢ / 38¢	– / –
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	09/05 7:05 PM	106	50¢	50¢ / 51¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	09/05 7:05 PM	101	44¢	43¢ / 57¢	43¢ / 57¢	– / –
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	09/05 7:10 PM	96	50¢	51¢ / 50¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	09/05 7:10 PM	112	53¢	53¢ / 47¢	53¢ / 48¢	– / –
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	09/05 7:15 PM	109	51¢	52¢ / 49¢	51¢ / 49¢	– / –
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	09/05 7:15 PM	109	50¢	51¢ / 50¢	51¢ / 50¢	– / –
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	09/05 8:10 PM	104	47¢	48¢ / 53¢	48¢ / 53¢	– / –
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	09/05 9:10 PM	99	67¢	69¢ / 33¢	68¢ / 32¢	– / –

Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.