SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 17 games · updated Jul 29, 3:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/29 3:45 PM | 144 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 07/29 4:10 PM | 143 | 60¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/29 6:40 PM | 143 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/29 7:10 PM | 144 | 45¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 44¢ / 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/29 7:10 PM | 127 | 42¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 60¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/29 7:40 PM | 143 | 43¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/29 7:40 PM | 142 | 64¢ | 66¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 35¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/29 7:45 PM | 144 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | 07/29 9:38 PM | 142 | 45¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/29 9:40 PM | 143 | 42¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/29 10:10 PM | 143 | 60¢ | 62¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/30 12:10 PM | 21 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 49¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/30 1:40 PM | 8 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/30 2:10 PM | 18 | 50¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | – / – |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/30 2:15 PM | 17 | 47¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream | 07/29 8:00 PM | 144 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries | 07/29 10:00 PM | 150 | 40¢ | 39¢ / 63¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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