SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 18 games · updated Jul 29, 1:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/29 12:10 PM | 126 | 41¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 42¢ / 60¢ |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/29 12:35 PM | 128 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/29 1:05 PM | 128 | 47¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/29 1:10 PM | 128 | 60¢ | 62¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/29 1:10 PM | 119 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/29 3:45 PM | 129 | 47¢ | 48¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 07/29 4:10 PM | 122 | 56¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/29 6:40 PM | 127 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/29 7:10 PM | 128 | 45¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 56¢ |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/29 7:10 PM | 104 | 41¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 43¢ / 61¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/29 7:40 PM | 129 | 43¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/29 7:40 PM | 124 | 62¢ | 63¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 63¢ / 39¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/29 7:45 PM | 123 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | 07/29 9:38 PM | 122 | 46¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/29 9:40 PM | 122 | 42¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/29 10:10 PM | 121 | 57¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 60¢ / 43¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream | 07/29 8:00 PM | 138 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 52¢ / 51¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries | 07/29 10:00 PM | 143 | 35¢ | 35¢ / 66¢ | 35¢ / 66¢ | – / 67¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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